historically, btc ends the cycle with a blow-off top

I don't think that happens this time actually, I think the next bear market will be less "cause pain bc number go down a lot" and more "cause pain bc number go down a little and then does nothing interesting for years"

cont https://twitter.com/RY_ChimaGun/status/1385811257253531650

that said, I think we're gonna start seeing a lot less correlation across sectors of crypto

defi summer was v interesting, bc for the first time we had another market sector besides "bitcoin" and "alts"

expect more of this, these cycles will likely continue to blow off at tops

but as far as invalidation goes, it's gonna vary by sector.

Bitcoin is not where the real % gains are at (though it is still one of the best risk-adjusted bets imo). I don't think there's too much danger of btc wrecking everything on a macro scale any more.

ETH, I think is gonna pop HARD.

It's so over-used as collateral in defi, we're gonna get cascading liquidation events for months methinks

also eth is trash, but that isn't nearly as important because most people don't THINK it is.

idk how the rest of the market will react to these more fractured cycles. Gotta play it by ear, a lil.

Generally though, the sign of a top is unsustainability. lots of potential factors, but if there are strong reasons why conditions cannot sustain, rest assured: they won't

things to watch include annualized cost of funds (funding rates, futures premia, lending rates, etc), general liquidity conditions and relative leverage in the market

these are usually the culprits