1) Quebec on Friday disclosed that #COVID19 hospitalizations dropped by 27 to 684. This represented the steepest decline in hospitalizations since Feb. 15., with most of the decrease taking place in Montreal. In this thread, I will examine this latest trend on hospitals.

2) First, though, I wanted to provide some added context by comparing Quebec’s numbers with those in Ontario. Our neighbor to the west reported 2,287 #COVID19 hospitalizations, down from 2,350 the day before. But the overall number of cases is sadly still rising in Ontario.

3) In Montreal, #COVID19 hospitalizations declined by 20 to 249. During the second wave’s peak on Jan. 12, Montreal reported 627 such hospitalizations. Obviously, the latest decrease eases pressure on the acute-care network, but the system is already fractured in many ways.

4) Nurses in Quebec have quit the profession in droves. Respiratory therapists have gone on stress leave, as I wrote about earlier this week at the McGill University Health Centre. At the same time, the backlog of elective surgeries has jumped by 4,000 to more than 148,000.

5) Wait times for colonoscopies have lengthened considerably. More and more people are presenting with advanced cancer in Quebec hospitals, a top oncologist told me. This is occurring in other jurisdictions, too, but Quebec’s system was very vulnerable even before the #pandemic.

6) The third wave at this point is under much better control here in Quebec than in Ontario or in Manitoba and Alberta, where the #COVID19 reproductive rates are 1.43 and 1.22, respectively, according to ace epidemiologist @DFisman. Quebec’s rate is 0.80.

7) However, there is no denying the hard reality that after this third wave ends, the lingering negative fallout from the pandemic will be deep and widespread for years to come in Quebec. Oncologists, for example, are predicting a rising cancer mortality rate.

8) Meanwhile, the third wave may be showing signs of tapering off in Montreal amid the rise in #COVID19 vaccinations in targeted neighborhoods and groups. The city’s seven-day rolling average dropped to 14.09 cases per 100,000 residents from 46.34 during the second wave’s peak.

9) But the more transmissible #COVID19 variants remain a threat in Montreal and across the province. On Friday, Quebec’s public health institute added 179 variant cases in the city and 133 in the Capitale-Nationale. See the chart below.

10) And as I warned about tonight in my @mtlgazette column, vaccination coverage among Quebec health-care workers is not nearly as high as it should be, especially when compared with British Columbia. End of thread. Please limit your social contacts. https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/analysis-more-health-workers-in-long-term-care-need-to-get-vaccinated