1 million #COVID19 **deaths** projected in India by August 2021. The model even assumes vaccines to will bring it under control by May 17th (peak deaths).

God help us. God help India.

(Projections by the world renowned epidemiology center @IHME_UW)
https://covid19.healthdata.org/india?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

2) the worse case is 1.04 (95% CI 840k-1.25 mil) by August 1st.

Even with universal masks and vaccine rollout, it will likely be 878k (95% CI: 728k-1.07 mil).

3) How many projected global #COVID19 deaths? 5 million or so by August 2021.

4) And what will be driving global trends next month? India - it will decide how high global cases and deaths will rise.

Also extraordinary— IHME modeling senior researcher @AliHMokdad’s group assumes a very low efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine against #B1351 & #P1! Damn. https://twitter.com/alihmokdad/status/1385728826085236737

5) If you don’t believe the projection - then will you believe the hospital crisis in India? In even among the wealthiest hospitals in Delhi— they are at basically zero oxygen left. When the anchor asks the hospital director what that means, the doctor just replies “it’s over”. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1385884864768004096

6) Sometimes we need to face the brutal reality before we change. So here is the reality in many public hospitals where people die on the streets.

Now we need to sober up and act to change. @narendramodi - it’s your move. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1385116938255454211

7) Here is now the world is doing in vaccines... not well.

Global COVID-19 vaccinations:

(Partially) vaccinated:
▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
6.80% (+0.11)

Fully vaccinated:
░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
2.84% (+0.07)

To reach 60% at current rate:
966 days

8) So why can’t Biden WH send US vaccines immediately abroad? Because the current vaccines are from Trump WH Operation Warp Speed contracts that specifically prohibit their use outside the Us.

Only the new Biden WH ordered vaccines can be shipped abroad for use—coming in May. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1379621738850422787