What are the prospects of reconstruction in Syria? - a thread.

The cost of rebuilding what was destroyed is circa $100 billion USD - not 250 billion and up as is often stated.

The estimates of 250-400 billion USD regard the destruction of physical capital (i.e. assets) and its sectoral distribution, in relation to pre-war levels.

The cost of destruction, to rebuild the cities in general, is estimated at circa 100 billion USD.

The scale of destruction in Syria varies regionally.

According to REACH (2018), Aleppo has more destroyed buildings in total numbers than Homs, Raqqa, Deir Ezzor and Zabadani combined.

Hamah never saw destruction from war, but instead saw demolitions of some informal housing.

The World Bank (2017) assessed damage in the cities of Aleppo, Hamah and Idlib. Of the three cities, Aleppo accounted for 80% of the damage.

Both Idlib and Aleppo had a third of their housing destroyed, even though the total number of damaged buildings is far higher in Aleppo.

The agricultural region of Eastern Ghouta, east of Damascus, also varies in destruction.

Most severely damaged is the easternmost part, such as Harasta and Jobar. Ein Terma was slightly less damaged and is more habitable.

Nearby towns Erbin, Zamalka and Saqba fared better.

Some villages, such as Hammouriyeh and Beit Sawa, are more intact.

Douma has fairly intact and destroyed areas.

While it is unfortunate that Aleppo makes a major part of the total cost of reconstruction, it is also hopeful that a large portion of the cost is concentrated to one city.

As Syria’s industrial and economic capital, Aleppo has seen a notable (re)construction movement.

In every neighbourhood of Aleppo, one can see examples of reconstruction. A real estate development zone has been made in the damaged informal area of Al-Haydarieh.

Over 1000 schools are now operating in Aleppo and its countryside - compared to 290 during the siege of Aleppo.

Half of old Aleppo’s 256 archaeological mosques have been or are being restored, and circa 10 out of Aleppo’s circa 20 damaged churches have been or are being restored.

Approximately 10 of Aleppo’s 37 historical souks have been restored. Several khans have been restored.

Aleppo has the most total damage, but Homs has the worst damage of the major cities. Parts of it look apocalyptic, with locals yet to return, while other parts remain intact and bustling.

While Homs has seen much infrastructure work, it has seen little reconstruction of housing.

In moderately but not severely damaged areas of Homs, such as al-Wa’er, many locals have returned and rebuilt their homes on their own.

Master plans have been made for the reconstruction of the damaged areas of Baba Amr, Sultaniyeh, Qarabis, Al-Khalidiyeh, and Juret Al-Shayah.

Raqqa is perhaps the best example of reconstruction in Syria.

The city has a very active construction movement, with over 80 local companies operating in the sector. Many buildings, schools and healthcare centres have been rebuilt.

More or less all of Raqqa city’s heritage sites have been or are being restored.

Most mosques have been rebuilt, and 1 out of 2 churches in the city are being rebuilt.

70% of all rubble in the city has been removed.

Deir Ezzor City, similarly to Homs, has seen little to no reconstruction of housing.

The formerly ISIS-held areas of the city are severely damaged or destroyed, and the continuously government-held pocket of the city is fairly intact.

To my knowledge, no new organizational plans have been made for the city.

65% of Deir Ezzor has been cleared from rubble.

Deir Ezzor countryside under the SDF, such as Hajin, has seen a lot of reconstruction.

This is partly due to the int. aid from both SRTF, USAID, other international organisations, and SDF’s own resources. But equally important are the local efforts, companies and crowdfunding.

Likewise goes for cities and towns in Raqqa countryside, such as Tabqa and Mansoura - both of which have mostly been repaired.

Kobani, or Ayn Al-Arab, was mostly destroyed but is now mostly rebuilt with little signs of the war remaining.

The Euphrates Shield area, including major cities Al-Bab and Az’az, has mostly been rebuilt by Turkey.

Destruction in Daraa countryside is not severe, with exception to some suburbs of Daraa city.

There has been some construction activity.

Syria is already seeing reconstruction. The government with its allies is rebuilding areas under its control, SDF through US and allies areas under their control, and Turkey is rebuilding areas under its control.

Large parts of the electricity grid have been fixed. The major problem is not transition, but generation of, electricity.

The direct damages to the electricity sector is estimated at around 5 billion USD.

Iran has committed to nearly 1 billion (1/5 of the total cost of direct damages to the sector), with Iranian Mapna Group funding the rehabilitation of Aleppo power plant and the construction of a new power plant in Al-Rastin, Latakia.

There has also been a renaissance in the rehabilitation of parks. In Aleppo, around 50 green spaces and parks have been rehabilitated.

Numerous important parks in Raqqa, Al-Bab, Tabqa, Daraa, Homs and other areas have been or are being rehabilitated. https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/rebuilding-syrias-raqqa-one-park-time

Many if not most of Syria’s religious sites, both mosques and churches, have been or are being rebuilt.

Other cities (excluding Aleppo):

The list narrows it down to notable examples to fit the page, but there has been many, many more mosques and churches rebuilt all over Syria.

When it comes to the restoration of historical sites, Syria has come a long way too.

A list of notable examples (among the many more):

Hundreds of bakeries, health centres, thousands of shops, have all reopened. Even when the government is absent, locals have shown real resilience by crowdfunding, receiving support from relatives abroad, or even creating their livelihoods on their own by having more than 1 job.

Most of the damage is in the housing sector, but since there are many who will not return regardless of the situation, infrastructure and society is arguably more important.

The rehabilitation of basic infrastructure has generally been going smooth in all areas of Syria, from Daraa to Aleppo to Idlib to Raqqa to Deir Ezzor.

Unfortunately, many businessmen rather prefer profitable investments in hotels, restaurants, luxurious housing projects, rather than rebuilding projects. There is a lot of money that goes to large fancy projects rather than rebuilding damaged districts.

In summary, Syria is being rebuilt. It might take a decade or two in a worst-case scenario, or it may go faster if sanctions change. Some areas look more optimistic than others. The real challenge will be restoring the society - economically, socially, and culturally.