Do day 3 NFL Draft picks affect fantasy?

I keep hearingday 3 picks as great buy candidates or breakout players

I wondered what are the chances that they become truly fantasy relevant and a top tier option at the position?

So I thought I’d look at WR and RB and dive deeper

WR

Between 2010-2019 there have been 162 WR’s drafted in day 3 (rounds 4-7)

Of those 162 players only 4 have gone on to have a top 24 fantasy season:

Diggs
Marvin Jones
Mike Williams (tampa)
Antonio Brown

So that is a 2.5% chance that a day three receiver goes on to produce a top 24 season and become a top tier option at the position.

What about RB is that better???

RB

Between 2010-2019 there have been 146 RB’s drafted in day 3 (rounds 4-7)

Of those 146 players

20 have gone on to have a top 24 fantasy season

10 of those have gone on to have a top 12 season

The 10 players to have a top 12 season:

Aaron Jones
Chris Carson
Jordan Howard
Jay Ajayi
Mike Davis
James White
Devonta Freeman
Laatavius Murray
Alfred Morris
Lamar Miller

That’s a 6.8% chance your RB becomes a top 12 producer and a 13.7% chance your RB becomes a top 24 option.

Not exactly great but far better than a WR

I'm not doing this to say that Day 3 picks are irrelevant I get that players who dont finish with a top 24 season can still be useful fantasy options and dynasty Assets.

But it does reiterate why you should be taking flyers at RB late in your rookie drafts