Thread by @JozefMelvin, Right then. This is my first ever FPL related thread, and it's [...]

Right then. This is my first ever FPL related thread, and it's about the 3rd striker slot in our FPL teams and in particular about a left field choice I've taken a keen interest in: Richarlison (7.8 mil and 0.95% owned in 10k)

I know, on face value 6 goals and 3 assists doesn't really make anyone jump up and take notice but this thread is more of a note to keep him firmly in consideration as a potential differential route ahead of more popular options like Watkins and Bamford.

Right, first up Everton's upcoming fixtures are pretty promising, Villa, Whu(sans Rice), Sheffield and wolves is one of the best fixture runs in the 34-37 period and he obviously plays a game more than pretty much all of his competition
Credit to: @BenCrellin for the spreadsheet

Speaking of his competition,I think the contenders for the 3rd striker include Bamford,Watkins, Ings and DCL
•Dcl's performances have fallen off a cliff and have been well documented in the community

•Ings does have the fixtures, but Southampton as a team just aren't clicking

•Watkins has a good 33-36 period but without Grealish, villa just don't seem as tempting, that said he still is chipping in with the odd return.
• Bamford has the strongest case I think and on paper(good fixtures and plenty of chances) he seems to have more value than Rich...

...and I agree he's the safer option, but for those chasing he's probably not that high upside pick you want, considering you already own Nacho and Kane.

Now I'd like to make my case on Rich. I'd actually like to keep my sample size pretty small, ie, their last 3 games.Why? Bcoz of the return of this man.

Hamez returned against palace and in that game as well as the Spurs game, Him, Rich and Everton in general have looked more threatening than b4. Him playing his favoured 10 role reduces his defensive workload and this augers well for the men up front.

Let's just jump into some stats I looked up.

Everton's last 6 games w & w/o Hamez.
xG: 8.47 v 6.51
SiB: 38 v 31
Richarlison SiB: 16 v 13
There's a slight decline in offensive ability of Everton without him and for further context the games that I considered were....

(Spurs, brighton, palace, Pool, City& Fulham. )> Last 6 games Hamez DID play
Vs
(Burnley, Chelsea, Saints, Wba, Leeds, SHU). > Last 6 he DIDN'T play

It's quite obvious which set was tougher offensively and this should add further merit to those numbers

•Now additionally Ancelotti said in his presser today that Allan and Gomes will be available and this means it'll probably be the 2 of em and Davies in contention for the 2 spots in the pivot. This should improve Everton a bit more in the middle of the park

•What this also means though is that Sigurdsson might not start which probably means Richarlison is the guy on pens

and also probably one less competitor for any free kicks closer to goal (direct shots).

Another point I should have mentioned earlier is that Rich over the last 3 games(which I had mentioned earlier would be my sample size) has the 5th best npxG(behind kane, nacho, and the 2 newcastle strikers

) of 1.51 and an xA of 0.55.
For context Bamford has 1.34 and xA 0.32

He doesn't have any goals to show for it though but he did get a LOT of pretty clear cut chances against palace and spurs. Let me illustrate some of them through some screenshots I took watching the highlights

His first chance vs palace off a Coleman cross(who btw, has been doing pretty well himself as rwb). Ended up just going over the bar.

Second big opportunity for him. He goes for the bottom right corner (gk's left) but Guaita does well to save. He was pretty selfish here too , cuz he could have squared it to the unmarked DCL

Takes the direct free kick ahead of the likes of gylfi, Hamez and Digne. Again, doesn't miss by much

Meets the cross on the volley. Get's the shot on target but again Guaita denies him with another good save.

Hamez slips a through ball for him,he runs into the space and shoots for the bottom right. Full stretch lloris save keeps it out.

This was arguably his best opportunity. Came if a rebound, but sent it over.

So as you can see, the chances are there,and I personally think he's someone to monitor
•What I hate about Everton though is these odd games where they're just horrible. Like the games vsFulham, brighton and Newcastle where they had below 0.5xG.And if you're an owner be prepared

• I personally think, for those on the likes of Watkins, Laca, Vydra and looking for a proper differential, he's a pretty good shout for a 3rd striker. Also he isn't easy to get(might in some cases take 2 transfers) which can be considered as a pro or a con, depending on you.

Nd that's a wrap, thank you so much if you've made it till here and I hope I've given a good case for him to be considered
I'd really appreciate any likes and retweets especially as this is my first ever thread.

@FPL_Banger @FPL_Mihir Guys I'd really appreciate it if you guys could maybe retweet this(if you liked it and found it interesting ofcourse).
Really chuffed to have actually completed this and I can honestly see why u guys do it so often.Ofcourse any feedback/criticism is welcome

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