0/ $BTC is exhibiting bottom 10% trailing 2-10D performance including the worst 5D move in $BTC since 2/26 and prior to that March 12-16 of last year which included Black Thursday with the worst 10D performance since 1/21 prior to last March.
1/ April is now trending for the first $BTC down month since last Sept which would snap a 6 month streak (we had only ever saw 7 consecutive months from March - Sept '12). It would also be the first down month of April since 2015.
2/ The "theoretical cost basis" of $BTC or realized cap per @coinmetrics now sits at an ATH of $19,147 which makes the difference ~160.7% which is still top 15% all time (but the lowest since January).
For comparison in Feb when first hitting $50K that stood at 270%.
For comparison in Feb when first hitting $50K that stood at 270%.
3/ The upward movement of that cost basis can serve as an OK proxy for theoretical b/e price for all current $BTC holders
It continues to trend higher but due to the BTC move the increase MoM is set to be amongst the lowest since October (although a lot can happen in a week)
It continues to trend higher but due to the BTC move the increase MoM is set to be amongst the lowest since October (although a lot can happen in a week)
5/ $BTC is averaging ~$58M of daily inflation + transaction fees that need to clear market. So far in '21 we've seen ~$4.3B of supply which is already approaching the '20 level (despite halving last May).
6/ With that daily supply its important to focus on the potential new sources of demand.
$MS raised $29.4M from 322 investors in the first 2 weeks on their $BTC fund ($91.3K avg check) that's underwhelming but given the MS restrictions / fees (3% fee) not unexpected
$MS raised $29.4M from 322 investors in the first 2 weeks on their $BTC fund ($91.3K avg check) that's underwhelming but given the MS restrictions / fees (3% fee) not unexpected
7/ The $GBTC NAV discount is down to ~19% which also doesn't bode well for sentiment (there are now other alternatives and many point to $COIN as a broader crypto proxy w/ operating leverage so historical premium / discounts not apples to apples)
8/ The corporate / insurance / large asset mgmt bid was a large part of the 4Q20-1Q21 move (e.g., $TSLA, $MSTR, $SQ, Mass Mutual, Ruffer Management, One River, etc... and those are just the public ones known).
Thus far in 2Q we haven't had that same demand equation.
Thus far in 2Q we haven't had that same demand equation.
9/ As @Travis_Kling points out you're now buying $BTC < 10% higher than when @elonmusk announced his $1.5B buy https://twitter.com/Travis_Kling/status/1385416358259609601?s=20