Some quick market thoughts:

Cut my position at a loss when we broke 54K yesterday. It was clear that someone with a lot of BTC was selling down all rebounds mercilessly.

6 consecutive LHs is not something you fade.

We had the Venmo news but market reaction was limited. OTOH, The Biden tax news revealed immense market weakness - remember in a bull market, prices don't care about bad news and vice versa.

Remember the Bitmex indictment news?

Americans seemed to have (rightfully) reacted to the news negatively - Coinbase has been heavy net sellers since the news broke.

Zooming out, we see that during the past few crashes Coinbase has been bidding consistently.

There were also heavy BTC outflows during the past few crashes from Coinbase to cold wallets. They were likely OTC deals as their patterns match previous deals that were announced.

Might be too early, but so far there has been comparatively fewer outflows.

h/t @thisisbullish

GBTC, one of the biggest sources of spot demand the entire run up, has closed inflows for nearly 2 months now.

Note how weak price action has been since this happened. There has been consistent outflows and premium remains solidly negative since this happened.

In the coming 2 months, there's going to be the biggest tranche of unlocks in GBTC's history. Historically, BTC would have huge bid pressure on unlocks because investors who want to lock in the premium and maintain exposure to the asset would bid spot BTC while selling GBTC.

With premiums being nearly -20% now, will this effect persist? https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/102694/grayscale-bitcoin-trust-gbtc-discount-19

3chads have likely hedged some of their BTC exposure after/near COIN listing.

That said, I will be bidding on the way down here. Nothing goes down in a straight line and after huge liquidations, I like to buy fear. Considering we've not retested upside liquidity, I'm bidding 47-48K for a rebound back to the 52-53k region and will reevaluate from there.

Kimchi premium almost back to zero

Heavy spot bids for BTC around this region on Finex:

In the end, I still don't think that COIN listing marked the cycle top. We have more up to go. You only need to survive to make it out much wealthier than you are now h/t @lightcrypto