Happy to share our recently study "The social costs of crime: the erosion of trust between citizens and public institutions" published in the *Economics of Governance* journal https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10101-021-00251-0 with @elardamaya @jjcuetoa #EconTwitter

In this study, we show how crime creates perverse circles of mistrust. These occur in the short and long term and change according to institutions' type: preventive or punitive. We summarize the paper in this thread

Version en español del hilo acá! https://twitter.com/elardamaya/status/1385438213754474498?s=20

More than half of the population considers the lack of security as the country's main problem in Peru. Crime has overcome traditional problems such as poverty and unemployment

Although victimization has been decreasing, as of 2017, 1 in 4 people reported having suffered a crime. Among the most affected are: women, young people, and people with higher education. None of the four institutions studied exceeds 10% confidence among the population

Crime not only generates economic losses but has also been shown to generate intangible costs. Among the latter, the social costs can affect economic growth, political-institutional stability, and the accumulation of human capital

To measure the impacts of victimization on institutional trust in the short and long term, we used the ENEVIC 2017 survey, the Police Station Census, and the Municipalities Registry (data from @INEI_oficial). Our methodology combines #MachineLearning and matching techniques

In the short term, we find victims of robberies reduce their trust in the police by 2.7% and in Local Police by 2.5%. In the long-term, victims reduce their trust in the judiciary by 2.1%. These effects were more damaging for women and repeat victims

Loss of trust generates vicious cycles of crime. Citizens do not cooperate with institutions, they share less information, and these institutions' work becomes inefficient. Consequently, the fight against crime becomes more difficult

We want to thank #DESCO and @CIESLimaPeru for the funding to conduct this study, the anonymous referees, and the @Stata 2020 Conference participants. We are also grateful to @INEI_oficial for its openness and interest in generating evidence to guide public policies @MininterPeru