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Covid seasonality is an issue that I don't understand well enough to fully form an opinion on.
But I will say that in order to have a fully fledged theory that Hope-Simpson's pattern explains the behavior of Covid spread, you have to have the theory explain it everywhere.
But I will say that in order to have a fully fledged theory that Hope-Simpson's pattern explains the behavior of Covid spread, you have to have the theory explain it everywhere.
It doesn't explain the curves in Brazil or India, two of the most active places at the moment.
It's not sound to look for places where the case curves match our theory. We must look for places where they don't.
And if the retort is "Seasonality is only one factor of many" that's great. That's where some epidemiologists are converging too.
And if the retort is "Seasonality is only one factor of many" that's great. That's where some epidemiologists are converging too.
Although most epidemiologists seem to have come from a place of "it's not seasonal!" which is just dunderheaded.
They should have been there long before others.
In celebration of that sentiment: https://twitter.com/covidtweets/status/1358272121462546433
They should have been there long before others.
In celebration of that sentiment: https://twitter.com/covidtweets/status/1358272121462546433
I remember an epi saying at one point, something like:
"There's no such ~thing~ as seasonality"
and then clarifying that what he meant was: Is it solar radiation? Is it mean temperature, Is it position of sun in the sky? etc.
Interesting clarification.
"There's no such ~thing~ as seasonality"
and then clarifying that what he meant was: Is it solar radiation? Is it mean temperature, Is it position of sun in the sky? etc.
Interesting clarification.
