Covid seasonality is an issue that I don& #39;t understand well enough to fully form an opinion on.

But I will say that in order to have a fully fledged theory that Hope-Simpson& #39;s pattern explains the behavior of Covid spread, you have to have the theory explain it everywhere.

It doesn& #39;t explain the curves in Brazil or India, two of the most active places at the moment.

It& #39;s not sound to look for places where the case curves match our theory. We must look for places where they don& #39;t.

And if the retort is "Seasonality is only one factor of many" that& #39;s great. That& #39;s where some epidemiologists are converging too.

Although most epidemiologists seem to have come from a place of "it& #39;s not seasonal!" which is just dunderheaded.

They should have been there long before others.

In celebration of that sentiment: https://twitter.com/covidtweets/status/1358272121462546433">https://twitter.com/covidtwee...

I remember an epi saying at one point, something like:

"There& #39;s no such ~thing~ as seasonality"

and then clarifying that what he meant was: Is it solar radiation? Is it mean temperature, Is it position of sun in the sky? etc.

Interesting clarification.