I've done a bit of number crunching.

Based on current delivery estimates — and those could change! — there should be enough Pfizer and Moderna shots coming in May to vaccinate every Ontarian over the age of 30 with at least one shot by the first week of June.

As of today, 5,248,345 shots have been distributed to Ontario minus 351,354 second shots = 4,896,991 people who have already received, or soon will receive, at least one shot.

4,485,780 Pfizer shots will arrive in Ontario between April 26 and June 6. At least 235,700 Moderna shots will come over the next month (there will likely be more).

That equals 4,721,480 more mRNA shots by June 6.

So, when you add the number of people who've already received or soon will receive a first dose (4.9 million) with the shots coming in May (4.7 million) you get 9.6 million.

There are 9,485,998 Ontarians over the age of 30, based on the latest StatsCan data.

This is a very crude estimate. It's also the worse case scenario. These figures do *not* include Johnson & Johnson or AstraZeneca deliveries *or* Moderna coming through with their other promised shipments.

With just mRNA alone, we *should* have enough supply for the 30+ crowd by June 6. Of course, much can change.