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Interesting to see a pretty extended back and forth over GBSD vs. Minuteman life-extension at yesterday& #39;s @HASCDemocrats @HASCRepublicans strat forces hearing. DoD officials& #39; testimony give the impression that plans to replace the Minuteman are open for debate within Pentagon. 
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As @PerkovichG and I suggested in "Proportionate Deterrence: A Model Nuclear Posture Review," the USG should consider life-extending Minuteman and engaging Russia in an arms control process to reduce silo-based ICBMs in reciprocal fashion: https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/01/21/proportionate-deterrence-model-nuclear-posture-review-pub-83576">https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/01/2...
for such a plan to work, DoD needs to answer a few questions (we listed three; see image). It sounds like the first two questions may be under study by CAPE, the Pentagon& #39;s budget/resource allocation office.
An independent study would be best to answer technical questions related to Minuteman III life extension, as the 2014 Air Force study was bound to a set of requirements (400 deployed ICBMs through 2075) which predetermined the choice between life extension and ICBM replacement.
@SecDef19 and @TomCollina suggested a similar study in a recent op-ed, and recently introduced legislation by @SenMarkey would require it.
Op-ed: https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2021/04/264b-icbms-would-be-destroyed-ground-no-thanks/173498/
Legislation:https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/202... href=" https://www.markey.senate.gov/news/press-releases/senator-markey-rep-khanna-introduce-the-investing-in-vaccines-before-missiles-icbm-act">https://www.markey.senate.gov/news/pres...
Op-ed: https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2021/04/264b-icbms-would-be-destroyed-ground-no-thanks/173498/
Legislation:
@MikeTurnerOH asked DoD witnesses whether a CAPE study is underway to examine cutting the ICBM force to 200 deployed, while using remaining missile bodies as spare parts to aid Minuteman life extension. If true, this study gets at another key model NPR rec:
@KingstonAReif and Steve Fetter dive into the details of a few different life extension options in @WarOnTheRocks two years ago, and their work continues to be an important resource for ICBM analysis in the NGO space (including Proportionate Deterrence), https://warontherocks.com/2019/10/a-cheaper-nuclear-sponge/">https://warontherocks.com/2019/10/a...
Finally, a shorter version of the argument @PerkovichG and I make in the model NPR can be found in a recent @WarOnTheRocks article, which I co-authored with @garretthinck : https://warontherocks.com/2021/02/setting-a-course-away-from-the-intercontinental-ballistic-missile/">https://warontherocks.com/2021/02/s...
Overall, it& #39;s a good sign if DoD is looking at GBSD. The Pentagon may decide to continue current plans in a new NPR. However, it& #39;s critical to re-examine the work done in 2014, the relevance of the ICBM today, and its rel. value compared to other defense priorities.
yes, depending on arms control to reduce US requirements for silo ICBMS may be rolling the hard six. But @POTUS is prioritizing arms talks with Russia, and #NewSTART is only in force for another 4.75 years. Signaling early interest in a replacement agmnt makes sense...
...and maintaining limits on US-Russia nuclear competition lets the US focus on a growing set of deterrence challenges emanating from China. The new administration& #39;s NPR process should weigh all of these factors in making decisions about ongoing modernization programs.
