Quick thread on the differences between the two recent Wales polls from @OpiniumResearch and @YouGov.

So the biggest difference is to do with promoting on the list. @OpiniumResearch rolled most parties into "other", while @YouGov prompted for most parties...

I won't argue for one or the other, as we won't really know which is the right decision until the results come in. I will write something next week about the annoyingly complicated decisions we are all having to make on promoting at the moment, but parking that for now...

Firstly, the really interesting thing we both agree on. There are *a lot* of people in Wales who voted Conservative in the 2019 election but are willing to back Labour in the Welsh Parliment. YouGov has it 16%, we have it at 11%. Either way...it's really significant!

About half of these would also vote Labour nationally, but for the other half, it is currently just a Welsh Parliament thing. I assume this is off the back of Mark Drakeford's high personal ratings, and high approval of the way the Welsh gov has handled the pandemic.

Now, the bit where there is currently interesting disagreement - how many Labour 2019 voters are going to support Plaid. We have it at 13%, YouGov has it at 23%.

It could be the margin of error, it could be a genuine difference based on methodological differences.

Either way, I do think it is a shame there are so few polls in Wales so we can get a better understanding of the dynamics that are in play there.

Should add, the above is in reference to the Constituency questions. I have ignored the list question because of the differences in prompting.