@hustlerama @mremis This seems like the chalkiest Oscars in recent memory, but here are some of my 'value plays' as someone who follows film criticism pretty closely. Just one man's opinion, but Twitter is where one goes to share such things.
Best Picture: Minari (9-1)
'Nomadland' is going to win this category, but if you're looking for a sleeper play, this is it. People would lose their shit if 'Trial of the Chicago 7' wins. Thoroughly recommend 'Minari' if you haven't seen it.
Best Director: David Fincher (9-1)
Again, Chloe Zhao for 'Nomadland' is the prohibitive favourite, but Fincher is loved by the Academy, has been nominated twice but never won, and the Academy may make Zhao wait for her Oscar, as they tend to do.
Best Actor: Don't Bet
Chadwick Boseman is going to win this and his odds are 1.03-1. There's not a chance that this goes any other way.
Best Actress: Frances McDormand (Nomadland) (3.83-1)
This is the first category that could go in any direction. Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis are both in contention here too. The Oscars *do* like to award young, white women as the "next one" (see Stone, Larson, Lawrence, Portman
but, I think this is a two-horse race between Mcdormand and Davis. While I don't think 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom' is the best film of the year, Davis is absolutely magnetic in it. that you get better odds on Mcdormand is the difference-maker in this category for me.
Best Supporting Actor: Don't Bet
Daniel Kaluuya is one of the best young actors in Hollywood right now, he's clocked multiple performances worthy of winning awards, and it's his time to get a statue. This is also a pretty thin category IMO.
Best Supporting Actress: Don't Bet
Youn Yuh-Jung is going to win this I think, if you want to get really spicy, Amanda Seyfried at (26-1) is in play I think. Lots of chatter around Maria Bakalova (4.68-1), but there's no way that The Academy awards someone for their debut.
Best Original Screenplay: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (3.69-1)
Aaron Sorkin is beloved by the Academy, and while this movie has a lot of 'problems', the screenplay is up to Sorkin's usual high standards.
Take these picks with a grain of salt, as I said, I'm pretty sure this is going to be chalk-y, but I tried to find some value. Not Nominated: 'Boys State' was the best documentary of the year and Delroy Lindo deserved a nomination for 'Da 5 Bloods'.
Matt's best movies from 2020:
1. The Vast of Night
2. Palm Springs
3. Nomadland
4. Minari
5. Da 5 Bloods
Honorable Mentions: 'TENET', 'Boys State', 'The Way Back', 'Mangrove'
I haven't seen 'Another Round' because it's impossible to find in Canada, but I hear great things.
You can follow @mynameisliang.
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