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Special Q1 Update (if anyone cares)
Current Portfolio:
$ICLTF - 87%
$BTN - 6%
$FGF - 2%
Cash - 5%
YTD Performance: +363%
Some thoughts below (more of journal entry than anything)
Current Portfolio:
$ICLTF - 87%
$BTN - 6%
$FGF - 2%
Cash - 5%
YTD Performance: +363%
Some thoughts below (more of journal entry than anything)
$ICLTF turned out 2 b a monster & most of it was luck, I agreed and thought there were some tailwinds but I was not underwriting $1200 lumber
To put things in perspective, my original bet wasn't a huge amount, although it's substantial now, I will not be retiring anytime soon
To put things in perspective, my original bet wasn't a huge amount, although it's substantial now, I will not be retiring anytime soon
I found $ICLTF via @IgnoreNarrative (will refer to as Mike so I don't blow up his notifications), he had just posted a great write up on it and was kind enough to walk me through it.
Mike said during one of our conversations, "I basically invest with Malone/Maffei and Kyle Cerminara" 
I had no idea who Kyle was at the time but my ears perked up at that one, that's high praise
I had no idea who Kyle was at the time but my ears perked up at that one, that's high praise
I have nothing to add to the thesis that hasn't been said already, bottom line is it seemed like an obvious fat pitch
If we were directionally right about the tailwinds you could get this thing for a fraction of EBITDA not a multiple, and hard to see how it could go really bad
If we were directionally right about the tailwinds you could get this thing for a fraction of EBITDA not a multiple, and hard to see how it could go really bad
That alone wasn't enough, a lot of stuff looks cheap and usually is for a reason. My comfort with Mike and then Kyle is what gave me real conviction.
I spent a weekend deciding how big to size it, went as big as I could (or as much as I could stomach) about 70%
I spent a weekend deciding how big to size it, went as big as I could (or as much as I could stomach) about 70%
Ok, big winner, great, now to be a buzzkill
This was my first "big" bet and it hit, it would be naĂŻve to think this won't result in a least some overconfidence in my abilities to spot a fat pitch
This is dangerous, I need to be keenly aware of that moving forward
This was my first "big" bet and it hit, it would be naĂŻve to think this won't result in a least some overconfidence in my abilities to spot a fat pitch
This is dangerous, I need to be keenly aware of that moving forward
I hate to admit this, but it bothers me that I didn't find it, I beat myself up for being an inept analyst compared to a ton of people on here, and having a big winner when someone else did the heavy lifting doesn't help with that
FAR outweighing that is the friendships I've made throughout this process and how much I've learned, I feel very lucky to have developed relationships with some really smart talented and genuine people
It also goes to show that you don't need to be the smartest or most talented analyst to get a great result, this is good news for me
I made a fair amount on this (to me it's a lot), but I feel no different. I think this is important and something I keep experiencing, if you're waiting on some external catalyst before you can feel a certain way, you'll be disappointed
Finally, this has been a lot of fun, and I've enjoyed doing it along side a bunch of people on here
Another huge thank you to @kcerminara @larryswets @IgnoreNarrative for all of their hard work
Another huge thank you to @kcerminara @larryswets @IgnoreNarrative for all of their hard work
