Read on Twitter
Special Q1 Update (if anyone cares)
Current Portfolio:
$ICLTF - 87%
$BTN - 6%
$FGF - 2%
Cash - 5%
YTD Performance: +363%
Some thoughts below (more of journal entry than anything)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">
Current Portfolio:
$ICLTF - 87%
$BTN - 6%
$FGF - 2%
Cash - 5%
YTD Performance: +363%
Some thoughts below (more of journal entry than anything)
$ICLTF turned out 2 b a monster & most of it was luck, I agreed and thought there were some tailwinds but I was not underwriting $1200 lumber
To put things in perspective, my original bet wasn& #39;t a huge amount, although it& #39;s substantial now, I will not be retiring anytime soon
To put things in perspective, my original bet wasn& #39;t a huge amount, although it& #39;s substantial now, I will not be retiring anytime soon
I found $ICLTF via @IgnoreNarrative (will refer to as Mike so I don& #39;t blow up his notifications), he had just posted a great write up on it and was kind enough to walk me through it.
Mike said during one of our conversations, "I basically invest with Malone/Maffei and Kyle Cerminara" https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="đź‘€" title="Augen" aria-label="Emoji: Augen">
I had no idea who Kyle was at the time but my ears perked up at that one, that& #39;s high praise
I had no idea who Kyle was at the time but my ears perked up at that one, that& #39;s high praise
I have nothing to add to the thesis that hasn& #39;t been said already, bottom line is it seemed like an obvious fat pitch
If we were directionally right about the tailwinds you could get this thing for a fraction of EBITDA not a multiple, and hard to see how it could go really bad
If we were directionally right about the tailwinds you could get this thing for a fraction of EBITDA not a multiple, and hard to see how it could go really bad
That alone wasn& #39;t enough, a lot of stuff looks cheap and usually is for a reason. My comfort with Mike and then Kyle is what gave me real conviction.
I spent a weekend deciding how big to size it, went as big as I could (or as much as I could stomach) about 70%
I spent a weekend deciding how big to size it, went as big as I could (or as much as I could stomach) about 70%
Ok, big winner, great, now to be a buzzkill
This was my first "big" bet and it hit, it would be naĂŻve to think this won& #39;t result in a least some overconfidence in my abilities to spot a fat pitch
This is dangerous, I need to be keenly aware of that moving forward
This was my first "big" bet and it hit, it would be naĂŻve to think this won& #39;t result in a least some overconfidence in my abilities to spot a fat pitch
This is dangerous, I need to be keenly aware of that moving forward
I hate to admit this, but it bothers me that I didn& #39;t find it, I beat myself up for being an inept analyst compared to a ton of people on here, and having a big winner when someone else did the heavy lifting doesn& #39;t help with that
FAR outweighing that is the friendships I& #39;ve made throughout this process and how much I& #39;ve learned, I feel very lucky to have developed relationships with some really smart talented and genuine people
It also goes to show that you don& #39;t need to be the smartest or most talented analyst to get a great result, this is good news for me
I made a fair amount on this (to me it& #39;s a lot), but I feel no different. I think this is important and something I keep experiencing, if you& #39;re waiting on some external catalyst before you can feel a certain way, you& #39;ll be disappointed
Finally, this has been a lot of fun, and I& #39;ve enjoyed doing it along side a bunch of people on here
Another huge thank you to @kcerminara @larryswets @IgnoreNarrative for all of their hard work
Another huge thank you to @kcerminara @larryswets @IgnoreNarrative for all of their hard work
