456 positive #Covid19Ireland swabs is 109% of last Thursday although thats actually a smaller increase than the same comparison over the 3 previous days. So a 'could be worse' which is relatively welcome. 2.5% positivity on 3k additional tests also a CbW indicator /1

Average of 466 positive swabs over the last 3 days is 109% of same days last week which projects as a slow week on week increase to 1000/day by June
532 wk1
608 wk2 - May6h
694 wk3
793 wk4
906 wk5
1034 wk6 - June 3rd
1182 wk7
1350 wk8
/2

Given the scale of return to in person eduction & relaxing of other measures 'I'd like cases to be reducing but could be worse' reflects my concern level 18 days into the 42 'vulnerable period ahead' days
https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1385159236943073280
/3

There were 140 more positive swabs than notified cases yesterday & typically 93% of swabs get notified as cases so tonights case notification could be quite high, over 550, even 600 at an extreme/ Why that happens explained here /4 https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1368517410953830400?s=20

I'm hopeful that the current good weather which has lasted quite a while will be giving us a hand over the next week or so because it may have meant people socialised in much safer outdoor locations (& kept windows open if indoors). Outdoors is 19 times safer if distance kept /5

Latest GP referrals for yesterday give an idea of swabs tomorrow & fit the general pattern of a modest CbW week on week increase rather than a worrying surge - some reassurance too from HSE presser athat next week should have highest vaccinations yet /6