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What is happening with COVID in India? People have been asking me to explain and to be honest, I’m not there and I don’t want to take away the voices of those who are, & those who are doing an incredible job of reporting. So the historian in me is putting a timeline together 1/n
In the first wave in 2020, the government locked down almost overnight. This caused enormous chaos, confusion and misery. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30938-7/fulltext
If you want to read about the impact on migrant workers in the first lockdown
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/the-long-walk-of-indias-migrant-workers-in-covid-hit-2020-7118809/
or this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-52776442
If you want to read about the impact on migrant workers in the first lockdown
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/the-long-walk-of-indias-migrant-workers-in-covid-hit-2020-7118809/
or this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-52776442
But the death toll from the first wave in India, seemed to not be excessive. This BBC news article has some graphs comparing the first and second wave. Note that the first wave hit in Oct 2020. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-56811315
People were writing about why COVID didn’t hit India as hard as the US and Europe
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-covid-didnt-hit-india-as-hard-as-america-and-europe/articleshow/81210964.cms. Everyone I know quoted this Siddhartha Mukherjee piece in the New Yorker as the first attempt to piece together an answer. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/03/01/why-does-the-pandemic-seem-to-be-hitting-some-countries-harder-than-others
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-covid-didnt-hit-india-as-hard-as-america-and-europe/articleshow/81210964.cms. Everyone I know quoted this Siddhartha Mukherjee piece in the New Yorker as the first attempt to piece together an answer. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/03/01/why-does-the-pandemic-seem-to-be-hitting-some-countries-harder-than-others
But by early this year, with India having been declared ‘post COVID’ and inching towards her immunity https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3714/rr-0, things began to go back to normal. People began to go back to work, weddings were being held, and last week the Kumbh Mela was allowed to take place.
Meanwhile on the vaccine front, the Modi government was also declaring victory once the results from the Phase III trial of the Astra Zeneca vaccine came in. He declared that ‘India was making vaccines for the world.’ https://www.livemint.com/news/india/its-victory-of-nation-not-government-pm-modi-hails-fight-against-covid19-11612770435826.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/defining-victory-in-war-against-virus-pm-modi-launches-covid-19-vaccine-drive-101610778095384.html
People got their first doses including my father. But by March fears of a vaccine shortage had led the government to stop exporting ‘Covishield’, the AZ vaccine manufactured at the Serum Institute in Pune. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00996-y
By 14 April, 111 million had been vaccinated.
By 14 April, 111 million had been vaccinated.
So what’s happened in the last month? I’m not a scientist by any means, so I don’t want to speculate about variants because previous speculation about UK variants have often been off the mark. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(21)00055-4/fulltext.
So as things began to open up, people wore masks less, restrictions were eased off, people were getting their first shots, life was returning to normal for many many millions. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/28/dramatic-drop-in-covid-cases-gives-india-hope-of-return-to-normal-life
Elections were happening over eight phases in West Bengal and Modi was thrilled to see packed crowds. https://www.timesnownews.com/india/west-bengal/article/amid-covid-spike-huge-turnout-at-pm-modi-s-bengal-rally-draws-flak-from-rahul-gandhi/746473
But overall vaccine penetration wasn’t all that high. And if the ventilation theory is right, then actually in India, ppl are often outdoors in the winter. It is in summer that ppl are indoors, and air-conditioning is switched on.
And add to that the sheer numbers of people involved, and that has led to the second factor. This is the total breakdown of medical infrastructure. Many middle class families are able to access ‘home care’ where CT scans, oxygen, steroids are provided in a home environment.
So those who are wealthy enough (and not sick enough) don’t have to fight for hospital beds. Here’s what one company is offering https://apollohomecare.com/stay-i-at-home/
But meanwhile the actual public health infrastructure has been entirely falling apart. Some say oxygen is being hoarded. https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/gurugram-news/oxygen-in-short-supply-in-city-chemists-say-many-are-hoarding-them-101618941999696.html
But in reality, as the stories of the last few days demonstrate, it is that there are not enough beds, not enough oxygen, and a rising tide of desperate people. https://www.ft.com/content/683914a3-134f-40b6-989b-21e0ba1dc403
But individual effort can only go so far, and ultimately this government and its negligence will be responsible for the death of many. I can only send my love and solidarity to those in India at this time. If people have links for reputable organisations to share, please do so.
