1/

Today @mod_russia's Sergei Shoigu gave an order to pull troops amassed around Ukraine back to their bases.

Here's why it is too early to stop worrying (yet) https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/11218263

2/ First, the order states that the equipment of the 41st army (which includes tanks and heavy MLRS), transferred from Siberia, is to remain in a camp south of Voronezh until Zapad-2021 strategic military exercises which aren't due till September. https://twitter.com/wammezz/status/1384146876488847371

3/
With the vehicles already in place, transferring just the personnel back to Voronezh would take days, not weeks.

It also should be noted that the order states the pullout will complete as early as May 1, while the initial deployment took nearly a month.

4/5

This, of course, leaves open the question if the troops will actually pull out and if yes, how many.

The same question was relevant back in 2014. https://twitter.com/Andy_Scollick/status/1385195068865273860

5/5

By our assessment, the forces remaining at Ukraine's border still present a danger of deployment into occupied Eastern Ukraine, while a large-scale invasion of government-controlled territory would certainly require moving more troops to the border.

We will keep monitoring.