A simple pointed question was asked of me yesterday. Does the C19 response end and when so? I'm not clairvoyant but I'm going with yes and relatively soon. Lets go through the reasoning. 1/

First, I'm not being glib when I say that Canada's C19 response is the largest social policy disaster in Canadian history. It's collosal in breath, damaging every aspect of society. Sit for 5 mins and ponder that fact. Let it really sink in. 2/

Now ponder why our response has been so disastrous. Is it the virus itself? The answer is a resounding no. Medical science knows respiratory viruses and while this strain was new and of some concern, it isn't unprecedented. 3/

Our C19 response is a straight up policy failure, from start to finish, enabled by the ineptitude of our public health community. Its that simple and its ugly to watch, especially as it falls apart. 4/

So who is responsible? Find the purse strings and you find the chief architect. Its the federal gov't, the prime minister and Dr. Teresa Tam, Canada's chief public health officer. 5/

Dr. Tam made four glaring mistakes at the beginning which sent Canada into this tailspin. Lets go through them.

1) Over inflation of a viral threat.

2) Over reliance on unproven/arcane public health interventions including NPIs.

6/

3) Recklessly coupling Canada's C19 response to vaccines.

4) No policy flexibility or ground level responsiveness.

All are serious mistakes by themselves but together it was a toxic brew that collapsed all policy options to one.

7/

Its hard to believe how niave the federal gov't was tying Canada's exit to vaccines. We weren't alone but these tools require careful development, they aren't toys. This isn't a hollywood movie or a make believe world. 8/

But as each policy action failed, we became evermore dependent on vaccines as our sole mean of salvation.

9/

Coronavirus vaccines are of course notoriously problematic and the developmental time window is far too short. But western gov'ts have trapped themselves, thus they are being rushed out the door.

10/

Certainly an unwise strategy but a tell tale sign gov'ts are heading to the exit. They want it over and the window of opportunity is small. They are out of policy options. It's that simple.

11/

I believe we have 5 more weeks of this mind numbing drivel before we back out of this dumpster fire. Canada is rushing vaccination and they know a fraction of people will fall sick but society is falling apart. 12/

You will see more noise in the coming weeks. When policies this big fail, its never pretty and much of it won't make sense. Politicians and MOHs are trying to scamble out, shift blame and attention. The legal ramifications are huge and careers are about to end.