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@ucas_online has published its report on higher education #AdmissionsReform ( https://www.ucas.com/about-us/news-and-key-documents/reforming-admissions) and, as I forecast, has opted for a model of PQO as its preferred route. https://twitter.com/JohnnySRich/status/1382352608094994432
A thread... 1/26
A thread... 1/26
You have got to admire @ucas_online’s openness to reform and their resistance to having ill-considered changes thrust upon them by DfE or others who might get it into their heads that they have the authority to do so. (They don't – within the law as it currently stands.)
2/26
2/26
In the accompanying press release @clareucas cites "unconditional offers and the use of the predicted grades" as the two "well documented challenges with the current system".
So, presumably, UCAS's proposed PQO-style reform solves these challenges?
3/26
So, presumably, UCAS's proposed PQO-style reform solves these challenges?
3/26
Well, HEIs themselves (well, @UniversitiesUK) have already in effect agreed *conditional* unconditional offers shouldn't be used in future.
https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/news/Pages/Universities-UK-publishes-recommendations-for-reforms-to-make-university-admissions-fairer-and-more-transparent.aspx
(Now why was that so hard? [sigh] Never mind.)
BTW other unconditional offers often have good reasons.
4/26
https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/news/Pages/Universities-UK-publishes-recommendations-for-reforms-to-make-university-admissions-fairer-and-more-transparent.aspx
(Now why was that so hard? [sigh] Never mind.)
BTW other unconditional offers often have good reasons.
4/26
So at least PQO will get rid of predicted grades, right? Not entirely, as students will still want (and even need) them in order to know where to apply where they stand a realistic chance of getting a place.
5/26
5/26
Most of the "challenges" of predicted grades will persist, but instead of the supposed damage being perpetrated by universities making choices based on predictions, it'll be less transparent – self-imposed exclusion by students or under 'guidance' by teachers, parents, etc.
6/26
6/26
Let's not forget that there is a large body of extremely expert and well-evidenced opinion ( @markcorver – honk!) that suggests predicted grades aren't such a problem after all. https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2021/04/22/mark-corver-predicted-grades-and-university-admissions/
7/26
7/26
Indeed, predicted grades might be seen as at least as good a measure of a student's potential as the grading of actual summative A-level exams which are fuzzily accurate at best and in any case aim to measure performance on a particular day. https://wonkhe.com/blogs/build-back-higher-regulation/
8/26
8/26
PQO would up the stakes of these single-day measures of performance effectively turning A level grades (even high ones) into a pass or fail at acceptance, largely without context.
9/26
9/26
Of course, HEIs could still apply contextual algorithms, but in a compressed post-qualification process would have less time to consider the individual's particular circumstance and make the fine judgements necessary.
10/26
10/26
Besides, these aren't the real problems of the current admissions system (which, to be honest, could be far worse).
The real problem is that the system doesn't promote optimal matching of students, courses and institutions through informed decision-making on both sides.
11/26
The real problem is that the system doesn't promote optimal matching of students, courses and institutions through informed decision-making on both sides.
11/26
What students need is a steady process of examining options, gaining understanding, and making choices free from undue pressures.
12/26
12/26
On the university side, the best matches are served by a rounded understanding of the applicant, their potential, their motivations, their background and circumstances.
13/26
13/26
The current system is at its worst during Clearing where everything I've described above disintegrates into a mad melée to find and fill places.
14/26
14/26
Shocker: There's a clear correlation between students going through clearing and those who drop out.
(Ok, I know...
***Correlation is not causation***
...but it's not a stretch to suggest that when people make choices in haste they make less good ones.)
15/26
(Ok, I know...
***Correlation is not causation***
...but it's not a stretch to suggest that when people make choices in haste they make less good ones.)
15/26
The promotion of sub-optimal choices is the real problem with the current university #admissions process – not unconditional offers or predicted grade.
https://johnnyrich.com/university-admissions-whats-the-real-problem/
16/26
https://johnnyrich.com/university-admissions-whats-the-real-problem/
16/26
And who does this problem afflict worst? Yes, you guessed...
Disadvantaged students are less likely to have access to good careers IAG in their school/college, are less likely to have friends/family who know about uni entrance, and are more likely to use Clearing.
17/26
Disadvantaged students are less likely to have access to good careers IAG in their school/college, are less likely to have friends/family who know about uni entrance, and are more likely to use Clearing.
17/26
So surely UCAS's PQO plan will solve this problem at least and will do away with Clearing?
Nope. It "retains Clearing" because unis would "require" it. That's a fair comment and a good reason why UCAS's model has at least one advantage over DfE's: it's actually workable.
18/26
Nope. It "retains Clearing" because unis would "require" it. That's a fair comment and a good reason why UCAS's model has at least one advantage over DfE's: it's actually workable.
18/26
But even if UCAS has worked out how to drop Clearing from their PQO process, it wouldn't really have disappeared, but rather expanded.
Rather than *no one* being in Clearing, *everyone* would be – with all the attendant bad choices.
19/26
Rather than *no one* being in Clearing, *everyone* would be – with all the attendant bad choices.
19/26
I know the idea of PQO is that all the decision-making goes on before exams, but behaviourally, that's not how choices work. Most people only make the hard choices when the chips are actually down. Decisions people may come to regret will be compressed into post-exam fever.
20/26
20/26
One of the invisible tricks of the current system is to ease applicants along a conveyor belt towards a decision, options narrowing until, for most people, the choice is almost made for them. (I'm not saying it's perfect.)
21/26
21/26
I'm all for reforming #HEadmissions – the system is flawed – but just because it should change that definitely does not mean that any change constitutes an improvement.
22/26
22/26
The #FairAccessCoalition proposed an excellent set of principles to test whether changes are for the better or for the worse: https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2021/03/22/the-fair-access-coalition-10-requirements-for-a-fair-admissions-process/
23/26
23/26
The current system has withstood 50 years of changes in HE, adapting and evolving. We throw that away for an untried overhaul at our peril. It's likely to cause greater harms through unintended consequences that those caused by the problems it seeks to solve.
24/26
24/26
I wholeheartedly recommend the thoughts of former UCAS chief @MaryCurnockCook (who, let's face it, really know her stuff on this topic) on the need for caution and incremental change (courtesy, like so much else in this thread, of @HEPI_news): https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2021/04/09/reflections-ten-years-on-from-the-last-pqa-review/
25/26
25/26
If anyone cares to ask me to design a better system, I'm happy to bore them with my ideas, but there's one thing I think we can all agree on: this thread has already gone on quite long enough.
26/26
26/26
