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@Noahpinion& #39;s latest substack illustrates an important general lesson for how 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten"> approaches "Great Power Competition" w/ https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China">: don& #39;t ignore "small states"
[THREAD] https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/ally-with-vietnam">https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/ally-wi...
[THREAD] https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/ally-with-vietnam">https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/ally-wi...
Noah& #39;s article focuses on https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">-https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇻🇳" title="Flagge von Vietnam" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Vietnam"> relations, directly comparing https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇻🇳" title="Flagge von Vietnam" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Vietnam"> to the major regional powers in the "Quad": https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flagge von Indien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Indien">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇯🇵" title="Flagge von Japan" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Japan">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇺" title="Flagge von Australien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Australien"> (+https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">) https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/11/asia/quad-us-india-japan-australia-intl-hnk/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/1...
Sure the Quad is important, but https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China"> is also already in rivalry (https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇺" title="Flagge von Australien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Australien">), a simmering territorial dispute (https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇯🇵" title="Flagge von Japan" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Japan">), or full-on conflict (https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flagge von Indien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Indien">) with each of those members.
As major regional powers, they are all "billiard balls" (to borrow from Wolfers) who will keep bumping into one another (as major powers are apt to do) https://www.amazon.com/Discord-Collaboration-Essays-International-Politics/dp/0801806917">https://www.amazon.com/Discord-C...
As such these states are unlikely to fully align with https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China">...or fully align with one another: major regional powers like to keep other major regional powers at arms length.
Need evidence for this claim? See https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge des Vereinigten Königreiches">& #39;s historically lukewarm participation in European Integration. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/10/16/splendid-isolation-again-europe-as-narrated-during-the-referendum-campaign/">https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/20...
Of course, https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten"> -- as an external power -- should continue to support the formal alliances it has with two of the three quad members: https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇯🇵" title="Flagge von Japan" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Japan"> (via the 1952 Security Treaty) & https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇺" title="Flagge von Australien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Australien"> (via the 1951 ANZUS pact).
And https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">continue down the road of building up its "special relationship"/strategic partnership/etc with https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flagge von Indien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Indien"> https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/beca-india-us-trade-agreements-rajnath-singh-mike-pompeo-6906637/">https://indianexpress.com/article/e...
But it is with the "small states" of that regional influence will be gained: it& #39;s where the "action is" in international politics. https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780295985244/small-states-in-international-relations/">https://uwapress.uw.edu/book/9780...
Building relations with the small states in the region needs to be the focus of https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten"> policy towards, whether with https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇻🇳" title="Flagge von Vietnam" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Vietnam"> or other states. https://www.routledge.com/Small-States-and-Hegemonic-Competition-in-Southeast-Asia-Pursuing-Autonomy/Tang/p/book/9780367415228">https://www.routledge.com/Small-Sta...
Indeed, building relations with smaller states, in and out of the region, appears to be a focus of https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China"> policy.
Think of the RCEP agreement: a massive economic agreement that was an @ASEAN led initiative embraced by https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China"> https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/">https://www.brookings.edu/blog/orde...
While the economic impact of RCEP remains to be seen, its creation illustrates why pulling out the TPP negotiations was a geopolitical and diplomatic "own goal" by https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten"> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/tpp-was-missed-opportunity-for-us-to-pressure-china-bob-corker.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/0...
Think of https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China">& #39;s Belt and Road Initiative: Currying favor with smaller states appears to have been a focus of the policy... https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1868102620968848">https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/...
...though that initiative seems to be failing/drying up/winding down/sputtering https://rhg.com/research/bri-down-out/">https://rhg.com/research/...
Think of https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China">& #39;s "vaccine diplomacy" efforts... https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-03-11/vaccine-diplomacy-paying-china">https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/...
...though that is also running into issues. https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-cannot-win-the-great-vaccine-diplomacy-game-without-vaccines">https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/C...
So Noah is spot on: the focus of https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">policy in the region shouldn& #39;t be "The Quad" -- they& #39;ll "balance" https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China">regardless -- but on https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇻🇳" title="Flagge von Vietnam" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Vietnam">, the rest of @ASEAN, and other small states.
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