Today is #EarthDay !

This April 22, @CrisisGroup is launching a visual explainer to illustrate how #climatechange can influence deadly conflict in Africa, focusing on Nigeria’s violent conflicts between farmers and herders. 🧵

#Africa is especially vulnerable to climate change.

Deadly disputes between farmers and herders over land resources across the continent illustrate the security implications of changing weather patterns.
Climate change is already aggravating the risk of conflict.

In Nigeria, the continent's most populous country, farmer-herder violence killed 6 times more people than the #BokoHaram insurgency in the country’s North East in 2018.
Farmer-herder violence has killed and displaced thousands of Nigerians.

@CrisisGroup finds that violent incidents between farmers and herders are concentrated in Nigeria’s grasslands (yellow) and along the agricultural fringe (brown) used by both groups.
Like many countries in Africa, Nigeria is highly dependent on agriculture, with the majority of the population making a living through farming or herding.

The effects of climate change can be intense as both activities rely heavily on seasonal rainfall.
High population growth, the #BokoHaram insurgency, and cattle rustling have forced herders in the north to migrate toward the Middle Belt in central Nigeria in search of pasture and water.
There have been hundreds of clashes, armed attacks on communities or other violence involving farmers and herders in the states of central Nigeria’s Middle Belt.
To curb the movement of cattle, the federal government’s National Livestock Transformation Plan seeks to shift Nigeria’s livestock sector from free-roaming herding to systems that concentrate cattle in ranches and grazing reserves.
Nasarawa is one of 7 conflict-prone states designated to pilot this approach.

However, many of Nasarawa’s proposed ranches are located in areas with low water supply, making them vulnerable to climate change. (Dark red = more seasonal variability in water supply, 2030 forecast)
To sustainably address the drivers of farmer-herder violence, the federal government should ensure that all states participating in the National Livestock Transformation Plan adopt measures that take climate change into account.
@CrisisGroup recommends that Nigerian authorities prioritise:

→securing the funds needed to implement the Transformation Plan
→building capacity for livestock management
→improving communication to better explain the plan to those affected
🎬 Climate change raises the risk of deadly conflict.

Learn about the dangers of #climatechange in Nigeria, Africa's most populous country. ☟
You can follow @CrisisGroup.
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