Happy #EarthDay everyone. Today there will be a lot of talk about climate targets. Governments and businesses will announce them and then lots of people will either celebrate or condemn them. So here's a bit of a rambly thread on targets. https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4030220/earth-day-prime-minister-urges-world-leaders-throw-away-chance-preserve-planet

First up, all the criticism of targets that will come today - 'net zero is not zero', 'targets are useless without action' - is completely understandable and has a vital role to play.

Unless global emissions actually start a rapid decline then the 1.5C and 2C goals in the Paris Agreement will quickly drift out of reach and climate impacts will start to become 'cataclysmic' to quote @RoryStewartUK.

Targets are only of value if they they trigger immediate action to ensure they are delivered. And that means not just the relatively easy action of investing in renewables and EVs that are now competitive, but also the difficult action of retiring fossil fuel infrastructure ASAP.

So when @GretaThunberg et al condemn the failure to match the various targets with credible action they play a vital role. Governments, businesses, and investors need a constant reminder that they have to deliver on their promises.

As @BarackObama used to say, 'trust, but verify'.

But while the critique of targets is valuable and necessary it is counterproductive to completely condemn them. Targets are not nothing. Far from it.

The current wave of net zero targets all flow from the Paris Agreement of 2015. They now cover around two thirds of global GDP, thousands of top businesses, and the vast majority of leading financiers. Today @JoeBiden #EarthDay Summit will secure further commitments.

These commitments vary massively in terms of quality, ambition, and credibility. But they all send investment signals.

The Paris Agreement sent an investment signal that helped accelerate the rapid reduction in the cost of renewables and convince virtually every auto major to shift their business model towards EVs, to offer just two examples.

Those targets that some were quick to condemn helped unleash the policies and investments that have delivered the building blocks of the clean economy that presents the last best hope of averting climate catastrophe.

Meanwhile, it is also worth asking what other strategy would work? Would we really rather politicians and business leaders were not talking about decarbonisation? Were not providing verifiable goals to measure their performance against?

They say that if you want to change something about yourself - quit smoking, lose weight, etc - the first thing to do is tell people about it. That's what corporate and political leaders are doing.

In dismissing targets out of hand the tacit accusation is that the world's most powerful leaders are either liars and knaves or idiots and incompetents. Now, there may be some evidence to support that hypothesis, but there is also value in sometimes believing what people say.

Because even if there is some greenwash going on, it doesn't take everyone delivering on their targets to create the critical mass that shifts economies on to a sustainable footing.

I am painfully aware of the scale of the climate crisis, the continued inadequacy of the response, and the need to resist the temptation to be too panglossian. Always this: https://www.businessgreen.com/blog-post/3084916/noahs-rainbow-raising-children-in-an-age-of-climate-crisis

But the sight of the world's most powerful leaders embraing #EarthDay to declare their intention to fully decarbonise the global economy within a generation is not nothing.

It is a massive victory for environmental campaigners and a necessary step towards actually building the net zero emission economy that can help avert disaster. Trust but verify, but also recognise progress for what it is.