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What’s going to be the fallout of the spectacular implosion of the European Super League?
Could this really change football for the better?
A thread…
#SuperLeague #FootballisFortheFans
Could this really change football for the better?
A thread…
#SuperLeague #FootballisFortheFans
...First, in the short term, it's likely to be extremely financially painful for the rebel clubs.
Those that broke from the ESL have the threat of penalty clauses.
There’s a possibility of punitive action from national and international leagues...2/
Those that broke from the ESL have the threat of penalty clauses.
There’s a possibility of punitive action from national and international leagues...2/
...Yet the biggest financial problem for some is the fact that they won’t now be getting the €200-300m upfront ESL payment.
A breakaway elite league has been an idea around literally for decades.
It came now because of the devastation to clubs’ finances from Covid...3/
A breakaway elite league has been an idea around literally for decades.
It came now because of the devastation to clubs’ finances from Covid...3/
...Revenues have collapsed, whereas outgoings have not...4/
...Net debt has shot up as result (data courtesy of @OffThePitch_com)...5/
...Barcelona’s net debt has doubled to €450m in a year with €266m short-term borrowing owed to banks & reports suggesting it needs to be repaid by June...6/ https://www.elmundo.es/deportes/futbol/primera-division/2021/01/25/600f103e21efa0aa318b4584.html
....The Madrid president Florentino Perez put it explicitly on Monday: “We are all ruined”.
So it's not impossible some of the more heavily indebted clubs will now have no choice but to look for outside investors.
But the longer-term consequences could be more profound...7/
So it's not impossible some of the more heavily indebted clubs will now have no choice but to look for outside investors.
But the longer-term consequences could be more profound...7/
...The attraction of a US-style closed league to the US owners of United, Arsenal and Liverpool was:
1)Doubled broadcasting revenues
2)Guarantee of revenues through the elimination of relegation jeopardy
3)New ESL spending control “framework” to reduce their costs...8/
1)Doubled broadcasting revenues
2)Guarantee of revenues through the elimination of relegation jeopardy
3)New ESL spending control “framework” to reduce their costs...8/
...If the Glazers at United or John Henry at Liverpool or Stan Kroenke at Arsenal now conclude a lucrative US-style closed league for Europe is now off the table for the foreseeable future they could decide to sell up...9/
...The oligarch owners who never really cared about profits are likely to stick it out, of course & more may seek to come in if the Americans sell.
Recall the Saudi attempt to buy Newcastle last year.
But would such owners have the long-term interests of fans at heart?...10/
Recall the Saudi attempt to buy Newcastle last year.
But would such owners have the long-term interests of fans at heart?...10/
...Before this week caring about this question was a minority concern.
But that seems to have changed...11/
But that seems to have changed...11/
....The fact Chelsea and Manchester City joined the ESL coup appears to have come as a wake-up call to some of their fans who were previously prepared to overlook such worries as long as these owners were spending huge money on new players and buying success on the pitch...12/
...That tangible mood change was why the UK government felt able to broach the idea of giving fan groups a golden voting share in clubs or minimum 51% ownership, mirroring the system that prevails in the German Bundesliga....13/ https://www.bundesliga.com/en/news/Bundesliga/german-soccer-rules-50-1-fifty-plus-one-explained-466583.jsp
...It’s been well noted that this fan veto prevented the top German clubs, including last year’s Champions League winners Bayern Munich, from committing to join the ESL...14/
....The imposition of such as structure on UK clubs would have profound consequences not only on the finances of the game but also its governance and priorities.
I wrote about the attractions of the German model for fans in 2010 here...15/ https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/ben-chu-how-english-football-lost-its-mind-1883678.html
I wrote about the attractions of the German model for fans in 2010 here...15/ https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/ben-chu-how-english-football-lost-its-mind-1883678.html
...Another potential long-term financial legacy from the ESL fiasco could, ironically, be the kind of spending controls that the clubs involved were mooting for their own cartel....16/
...The UEFA Financial Fair Play rules were never particularly tough & were often simply ignored by clubs with oligarch owners.
This forced all big clubs to engage in the inflationary spending arms race for talent, undermining their financial stability in the process...17/
This forced all big clubs to engage in the inflationary spending arms race for talent, undermining their financial stability in the process...17/
....Calculations by Vysble (hat tip @_BenWright_ ) suggests, that despite exploding broadcast and commercial revenues the Premier League clubs have collectively made losses (properly defined) of £2.7bn over the past decade...18/
https://www.dropbox.com/s/z19rqene6pcugau/WSRIU%205th%20edition.pdf?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/z19rqene6pcugau/WSRIU%205th%20edition.pdf?dl=0
...A possible outcome scenario of the ESL debacle is that the richest clubs will *finally* realise spending controls are in their own interests.
It might also embolden national and international footballing authorities to toughen them up and enforce them properly...19/
It might also embolden national and international footballing authorities to toughen them up and enforce them properly...19/
...Read @MiguelDelaney here on how the breakaway clubs might have now destroyed their long-standing leverage...20/ https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/super-league-premier-league-uefa-b1835595.html
...None of this is guaranteed of course.
I’ve been writing about the serious underlying financial problems in football and the case for reform since 2008 so I wouldn't underestimate the momentum of the gravy train and the power of vested interests...21/ https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/english-football-the-debt-time-bomb-28456529.html
I’ve been writing about the serious underlying financial problems in football and the case for reform since 2008 so I wouldn't underestimate the momentum of the gravy train and the power of vested interests...21/ https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/english-football-the-debt-time-bomb-28456529.html
...Yet it does seem that a genuine opportunity has opened up for beneficial change now – if clubs, regulators and, most importantly, fans choose to demand it.
More here for @indypremium
ENDS https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/news-analysis/european-super-league-financial-fallout-b1835275.html
More here for @indypremium
ENDS https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/news-analysis/european-super-league-financial-fallout-b1835275.html
