New Holyrood Projection (including both of today's polls)

Core Projection:

Hung Parliament, SNP short by 1 seat
SNP-Green majority of 13

(1/4) #SP21

The SNP remains on course to win their best share of the constituency vote since devolution, up 1.4% on 2016. The Greens are set for their best Holyrood performance.

The Conservatives may also improve their vote share, while Labour and the Lib Dems decline (2/4) #SP21

The result is that>50% of the time the SNP gain Dumbarton, Edinburgh Southern, and East Lothian. In most simulations, Ayr, Aberdeenshire West and Edinburgh Central remain in Conservative hands, but the SNP are within striking distance (3/4) #SP21

The Lib Dems are set to lose out on the list, while the Greens are in touching distance of gaining a Central seat and 2nd seats in Glasgow and Lothians. Final H&I list seat currently goes SNP a plurality of the time, but could go elsewhere on the day (4/4) #SP21