1. There's some confusion about the target of TTP's Serena attack. Initial media reporting indicated that the Chinese ambassador staying in Serena was the target. TTP's initial statement also mentioned "meeting of locals & foreigners" was the target. https://twitter.com/kashmirosint/status/1385027822998020101
2. After retracting the 1st statement, TTP issued another statement claiming that some police officials were SVBIED's intended target. In a follow-up statement, TTP tried to clarify that the Chinese ambassador was not the group's main target, which looks like an afterthought.
3. The pattern of responsibility claim is unusual. Clearly, TTP seems confused and defensive. The first statement "locals & foreigners" were the main target is vague. So, TTP knew there were some foreigners in the hotel but perhaps it did not know it was the Chinese ambassador.
4. Retracting the first statement & issuing a second one by omitting the word "foreigners" breeds more confusion, instead of bringing any clarity. The third statement where TTP blames the pro-state journalists and anchors for "misreporting" reinforces that confusion further.
5. Is TTP really behind this attack is also confusing the matter? Some analysts believe it could be ISKP/ISPP because TTP does not have a history of attacking Chinese officials. However, ISKP/ISPP have not put any responsibility claims, so far.
6. What possibly went wrong that compelled TTP to reconsider its statement & put a disclaimer about the main target.

I don't think it's the principal-agent problem? Hitting Serena Hotel with SVBIED required high-level clearance. A low-level cell can't do this autonomously.
7. The attack on Serena with the Chinese ambassador as the target was framed as opening a new front by TTP. Realizing the repercussion, TTP wasn't in a position to deny the attack but it distanced itself from targeting the Chinese ambassador. However, the damage has been done.
8. After 9/11, TTP sheltered ETIM's leader Hassan Mashum who was killed in FATA in Pak army's operation. TTP regularly published statements and videos in favor of the Uyghur Muslim community. At one time, during the PPP govt, ETIM was a main source of tension between China & Pak.
9. So, TTP has a history of siding & sheltering ETIM, if not championing the cause of Uyghur Muslims. In recent years, the Afghan Taliban and AQ leadership in Afg have also muted their criticism of China of the Xinjiang issue. The main statements have come from the Islamic State.
10. This is one reason why some commentators see ISPP/ISKP as the main perpetrator of this attack. For some, the attack is out of keeping with TTP's code of conduct devised by Nur Wali.

TTP had to distance itself because this will create troubles for the group in Afg and Pak.
12. In case, TTP joins Baloch separatists in targeting the Chinese projects in Balochistan, this will be a major development. However, it is just conjecture at this point. Baloch militants have adopted suicide bombing as a tactic which shows some organizational learning...
13. ..b/n jihadists&Baloch insurgents. TTP in the recent past has issued pro-Baloch statements particularly in favor of Baloch missing persons & emphasized the need of joining hands against the state. Whether this bromance has materialized into anything is a matter of conjecture.
14. At any rate, confusion notwithstanding, irrespective of who is the main perpetrator, the attack sets the tone for future trends of insurgency and jihadist militancy in this region.

Ends.
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