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This will be an ongoing thread about the formation of a "Federal Army" in Myanmar — a proposed resistance force created to topple and replace the current military regime.
This could be a make-or-break factor deciding the fate of the country.
This could be a make-or-break factor deciding the fate of the country.
As a protest organizer in Myanmar told me: "I have no hope in UN intervention. And we won't change much by simply protesting. We need a real revolution — gathering up all the ethnic armed groups and going on an offensive war."
This is the basic concept of the Federal Army.
This is the basic concept of the Federal Army.
Let's talk numbers. (Take them with a pinch of salt.)
Myanmar military troops: 350k - 400k.
Fighters among dozens of ethnic armed groups: ~75,000.
That's 75,000 combined. Unifying them is the hard part. They're now spread out among their various homelands in border areas.
Myanmar military troops: 350k - 400k.
Fighters among dozens of ethnic armed groups: ~75,000.
That's 75,000 combined. Unifying them is the hard part. They're now spread out among their various homelands in border areas.
Defecting officer from Myanmar military:
"At most, there are only around 200k soldiers who can skillfully fire a gun. But in the end, the decisive factor for winning a battle is not the guns. It is the artillery..."
(Not to mention jets and helicopters) https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/hein-thaw-oo-04202021170420.html
"At most, there are only around 200k soldiers who can skillfully fire a gun. But in the end, the decisive factor for winning a battle is not the guns. It is the artillery..."
(Not to mention jets and helicopters) https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/hein-thaw-oo-04202021170420.html
The military has helicopters, jets, armored vehicles, drones, loads of mortars, etc. — plus a steady pipeline of weapons from China/Russia/others.
Indigenous armies mostly have rifles, RPGs, mortars. Some have surface-to-air missiles that could wipe out helicopters.
Indigenous armies mostly have rifles, RPGs, mortars. Some have surface-to-air missiles that could wipe out helicopters.
It seems likely that many from the lowland Burmese population are willing to joint the fight somehow.
But at this point, it's not super clear where they should go. You can discern this in protest veteran Min Ko Naing's advice to protesters who want to take up arms:
But at this point, it's not super clear where they should go. You can discern this in protest veteran Min Ko Naing's advice to protesters who want to take up arms:
There's also an awareness that a Federal Army could only win *if* it drains defectors from the central military. At this stage, it's not yet clear where AWOL soldiers could go.
I spoke about this w/ @DrSasa22222, whose parliament-in-exile is working to create the Federal Army.
I spoke about this w/ @DrSasa22222, whose parliament-in-exile is working to create the Federal Army.
But remember — the coup was barely 12 weeks ago. Armed forces can multiply quickly when the drive is there.
As this analysis notes: one of the toughest ethnic forces (Arakan Army) had just a few fighters a decade or so ago. Today they have 10,000.
https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/federal-union-army-formation-possible-way-out-bamar-military-supremacy-doctrine
As this analysis notes: one of the toughest ethnic forces (Arakan Army) had just a few fighters a decade or so ago. Today they have 10,000.
https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/federal-union-army-formation-possible-way-out-bamar-military-supremacy-doctrine
Crucial to note that the ethnic armies have not been trying to totally destroy the central military (none could do this on their own) but to gain more control over their native lands — while the Federal Army would try to "replace" the military. This is a major distinction.
Some looming questions: which of the ethnic forces in the hills could realistically take a flood of new recruits from the heartland?
Do they have enough rifles, ammo, rice? If the recruit is a defecting officer, will he submit to a Karen or Kachin sergeant?
Do they have enough rifles, ammo, rice? If the recruit is a defecting officer, will he submit to a Karen or Kachin sergeant?
This Federal Army project puts most of the burden on indigenous forces that have struggled and died for decades with little help. Can the architects of the Federal Army convince them this is in the best interest of their people? That it can really pay off in the end?
These questions don't come from a place of pessimism. Everyone involved knows how hard it will be. The fate of this proposed army will tilt on choices made by millions of people inside the country. But this is an era of upheaval; astonishing things can happen.
KNU (one of the most experienced ethnic forces):
"Ethnic coordination is very, very difficult from the north to the south. They are different in their ideas, their thinking, nature and history ... But we deeply agree that we should have a federal army." https://southeastasiaglobe.com/myanmar-federal-army/
"Ethnic coordination is very, very difficult from the north to the south. They are different in their ideas, their thinking, nature and history ... But we deeply agree that we should have a federal army." https://southeastasiaglobe.com/myanmar-federal-army/
AA (a newer and formidable ethnic army):
Federal Army is a nice idea but AA won't submit to a "single chain of command." However, they may agree to coordinate w/ other forces.
(That could mean anything from sharing supply chains to coordinating attacks against the military.)
Federal Army is a nice idea but AA won't submit to a "single chain of command." However, they may agree to coordinate w/ other forces.
(That could mean anything from sharing supply chains to coordinating attacks against the military.)
Those prices sound high (I hear ~$1,000 for M-16 on Thai-Myanmar border) but, yes, this is a vital question. In truth, there's no one price because there is not one supply chain. Some use Chinese-made rifles, others siphon off Thai stock. It's complex. https://twitter.com/myatsan77645630/status/1385159732974047232
KIA (a highly experienced ethnic force neighboring China) agreeing to shelter defecting officers from the central military.
Would they also enlist them to fight? And how many defectors could the KIA absorb?
https://twitter.com/hkanhpasadan/status/1384621355581202435?s=21 https://twitter.com/HkanhpaSadan/status/1384621355581202435
Would they also enlist them to fight? And how many defectors could the KIA absorb?
https://twitter.com/hkanhpasadan/status/1384621355581202435?s=21 https://twitter.com/HkanhpaSadan/status/1384621355581202435
This is far easier than quickly forming a Federal Army: a "temporary alliance" of ethnic forces, each attacking military/police outposts simultaneously in various regions. It would vex the central military and could be a trial run for something bigger. https://twitter.com/hninyadanazaw/status/1386015221521666048
Meanwhile, at least a few hundred protesters from Myanmar's urban lowlands are training with Karen forces (KNLA) in the hills. They will later "return to safe houses" (presumably back in the central heartland) to "begin actions against the army."
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/youths-black-myanmar-protesters-train-fight-junta-2021-04-27/
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/youths-black-myanmar-protesters-train-fight-junta-2021-04-27/
If this pans out, it would be a big step towards the unification of ethnic forces. Time will tell. https://twitter.com/hkunhtoi/status/1387326885089120258
