Never follow the idiots in life; ALWAYS follow the idiots in the markets.

Allow me to graphically explain my point in this thread. /1

Let's start with the distribution of market participants:

Most people fall somewhere in the middle of this bell curve, casually passive investing in growth or value (lol) stocks. Obviously, in a normal distribution you have the extremes; however, the "Idiots" grouping is the sweet spot for returns /2

Why do the idiots do so well? They don't overthink it. They follow trends, ride waves, etc. I firmly believe most people that underperform are too clever for their own good. The market isn't that clever. Why? Well, let's overlay another aspect to this chart crime to learn why /3

As you can see from the red curve most of the people that actually have the ability to meaningfully move markets are either idiots or in the +3sigma Quanty group.

Now you're probably asking "Why don't I just be in the Quanty group?" Well, because you're probably an idiot.

/4

My point: Embrace being an idiot. Be the best idiot you can be and quit overthinking trading.

"But HorseFatGuy, I'm a contrarian". Well that's fucking dumb. Find me a contrarian that doesn't have a head of grey hair, crippling anxiety, or an alcohol problem.

/5

Trend following works because the idiots do it...join them. It's way less stressful to ride a wave & set a stoploss than to burn all of your mental & literal capital being contrarian all the time. Guess what? When the trend reverses, ride that one too!

Good luck...idiots.

6/6