Why turnout & the number of postal votes matter in this election. And why Nicola Sturgeon is so risk averse as to duck BBCQT & unveil a magic money tree manifesto expanding middle class welfare

A thread.
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Postal Voting

The Holyrood 2021 election there are a million postal votes, 23.8% of the electorate.

This is an increase on the 17.7% in 2016.
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In 2016 the election turnout overall was 55.8% (constituency) and 55.9% (regional)

And exactly 726,555 postal votes were issued (17.7% of the total electorate)

Almost 77% of postal votes issued were returned by electors in 2016
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So last time over three quarters of postal voters were cast.

On a turnout of 56% (rounded up)
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This all matters because:

Assuming the same rate of postal votes issued being returned this election as last time then about ONE THIRD of all votes cast would be arriving by mail.
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Who would benefit the most

I presume SNP. They have 100,000 odd members (maybe). So they would have a political machine rearing to go.

Also the Scottish Tories, as they are well versed in mobilising their voters
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Note: I’m speculating on who might benefit from the postal votes this time round, I am not Mystic Meg!
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Turnout

Let’s begin by remembering the 2017 General Election.

That story is one where the SNP lost half a million votes.

But they didn’t necessarily lose all or even most of these votes to opposition parties.
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One of the biggest reasons for the SNP haemorrhaging 13.1% of their vote share (dropping to just 36.9%) were previously identified SNP voters simply staying at home.
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In short, the SNP in 2017 were battered by low turnout among their voters, or voters previously identified as theirs. These folk generally stayed at home.

Result: SNP lost a third of their seats. Going from 56 to 35.
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So, in this election turnout really matters.

And the SNP have good reason to worry about a 2017 scenario:

Panel base poll (April 9-12) reveals that despite the headline 47% SNP share in the constituency, among those voters certain to vote, they drop to just 42%.
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Presumably this is why we’re seeing:

Sturgeon making a big fanfare of lockdown easing (although we still won’t be able to drink inside a pub)
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Being risk averse: refusing to attend BBC QT, despite all other party leaders are (though this might backfire given who fronting for the SNP...)
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Her quietened down television debate performances: she doesn’t want to scare any horses. Steady as she goes, don’t make much noise and so don’t risk rocking the boat.
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magic money-tree manifesto: promises promises promises of free free free! Platitudes galore & pledges to expand on welfare to middle classes. Give SNP identified voters a reason to turnout (even if many are pissed off over GRA reform proposals or Hate Crime Bill*)
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*and more SNP identified voters DO dislike core elements of the SNP’s Hate Crime Bill then like it. So Sturgeon is correct to worry it might depress her turnout.

Take a look at Comres polling...
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'It should be a criminal offence to speak words that cause offence'

2019 SNP voters:

Strongly disagree - 18%
Somewhat disagree - 22%
Neither- 28%
Somewhat agree - 21%
Strongly agree - 11%
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What at means is that more SNP voters disagree than agree with the core concept of the Hate Crime & Public Order Bill:

Sum disagree 39%
Sum agree 32%
Net: -8%

Thus Sturgeon is trying to compensate for this by over-promising on other shiny baubles in her manifesto...
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She is so worried about SNP turnout she also deliberately postponed her GRA reforms, knowing they’d be unpopular. So she quietly punted them until after the election.
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Conclusions:

Anas Sarwar is more popular than his party, this is Scottish Labour’s big advantage. But they need to bank on on-day voting ... big worry

There will be a substantially greater number of postal-ballots making up the final tally this election
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High number of postal votes could benefit SNP and Scottish Tory

But SNP do have reasons to be concerned about their on-day turnout. Their headline % share in polling conceals a much lower % share in same polls among those certain to vote

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SNP divisions on Hate Crime legislation and GRA reform proposals are real, and risk depressing SNP turnout.
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Sources:

Electoral Commission Report on how 2016 election was run:
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/scottish-parliamentary-elections/report-how-2016-scottish-parliament-election-was-run

BBC: ‘General election 2017: SNP lose a third of seats amid Tory surge’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40192707.amp

Scottish Sun: ‘SNP lose nearly half a million votes’
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/scottish-news/1124919/fewer-than-one-million-people-vote-for-the-snp-in-2017-general-election/amp/
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Panelbase April Poll data table:
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/Believe-in-Scotland-Tables-for-Publication-140421.pdf

Times: ‘Who will win the 2021 Scottish elections? Our predictions and polls’
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5aee2872-9c6f-11eb-a908-ec96e110073e?shareToken=d86e2bbbd71ab000083e907dc0b2e6ed

Savanta Comres Free Speech poll:
https://comresglobal.com/polls/free-to-disagree-free-speech-poll-august-2020/

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How a new Hate Crime Bill reveals the SNP’s unmoored approach to governance
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/11/how-new-hate-crime-bill-reveals-snp-s-unmoored-approach-governance
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This link will (I hope!) take you to a collection of my previous twitter threads.
https://threadreaderapp.com/user/DeanMThomson