Current impasse of Myanmar and some background information

There's not much news on Myanmar these days. China and ASEAN must still be actively monitoring.
The military are killing more and more people. Civil war on a minor scale has already broken out.

China and ASEAN are against inappropriate UN involvement which will isolate and humiliate the Junta with the foreseeable consequence that the latter locks itself in a non negotiable entrenched position. What ASEAN is aiming is for the Junta to step down in dignity and agree

to peacefully share the power with Aung San.

A summit meeting must have been proposed to the military. If the latter has promised to reorganize an election, they are invited to provide a specific date which will greatly calm down the situation.

One thing is certain, the military can't be done away with. Without the military a full scale permanent civil war is inevitable. Even with Aung San in power, she had to share the power with the military which has been running the country for decades,

its power base maintaining the nation's stability.

There are 135 ethnicities in Myanmar, all having their own military forces, living as separate communities, many inhabiting isolated mountains particularly conducive to guerilla wars. Many regions in Myanmar today are still

not under the effectual control of the government. Myanmar needs a strongman/woman to unite and run the country. Aung San's party National League for Democracy is composed of idealists who don't have much experience to govern a complex nation.

Aung San served the role as Myanmar's foreign minister. Since she enjoyed huge prestige and the West loved her, It was decided she should represent Myanmar. If she wants to govern, she can, as long as she doesn't touch the cheese of the military. The latter was pretty much OK

with the arrangement if Aung San had remained accommodating towards the military.

The relationship between Aung San and the military was pretty good for quite a while. Very unusual for the military which is known for its uncompromising brutality. Aung San even actively

defended the crack down on the armed riots of the Rohingas by the military, braving the Western accusation of "genocide".

Aung San's contribution was she withstood Western pressure and further invited in investments from China to develop the economy.

This spurred competition from Japan and India who followed China's suit and heavily invested.

Before Aung San acceded to power, she was vocally anti-China. The West wanted to put her in power precisely because of her anti-China position. The pro-China Military must

give way to democracy (meaning anti-China). But lo and behold, when Aung San took power, she turned and was more pro-China than the military! Thanks to her, the cooperation between China and Myanmar achieved a new level...

Aung San's party has more integrity

than the military who pretty much treated the BRI projects as cash cows, and the money China paid, a greater part of it went into the pockets of the military. NGOs accused China of human rights abuses because BRI projects required mass expropriation. China adequately addressed

the problem by building much better modern apartments for the locals and paid handsome compensation packages, but unfortunately the money was embezzled by the military. When the NGOs attacked China, the military went along and even used the excuse to stop the Myitsone Hydropower

Station project, not even bothering to return the money China paid as compensation for the expropriation and initial investment.

All things considered, China would much rather prefer to deal with Aung San, a decent woman who'd give up personal glories in the nation's interest.

Aung San once said she's not Mother Teresa but a politician.

With 300-400 Western NGOs operating in Myanmar, Myanmar is a NGO paradise. Their principal mission has degenerated into nipping all the BRI projects in the bud. Environment and human rights are the two trope topics.

Aung San decided to conduct investigation herself with regard to China's polemical Letpadaung Copper Mine Project. She went to the village and asked to speak to the locals. One villager came forward and went into a long tirade of grievances. Aung San suddenly asked him

where he came from. The man instinctively replied "Ragoon!". Turned out he was paid by a human rights NGO to slander the project (think Uighur witnesses paid by NED!!). It was Aung San who made the decision to relaunch the copper mine project.

Aung San achieved annual economic growth of around 5-6% for Myanmar. She should have just kept the status quo and focused on the economic development. Instead she got impatient and called for the amendment of the constitution written by the military which grants itself

a huge fixed power share. 1/4 seats of the parliament are reserved for the military. The Constitution also grants the military the right to take over the power if it deems the nation under threat. Such clause pretty much legalizes the military coup.

Note that the leader of the military Min Aung Hlaing is an old man. Knowing the level of the corruption of the military, the loss of power means prison for himself and his family. Time is running out. The coup was a daredevil move of a cornered animal. He calculated that

his coup wouldn't arouse opposition from the West now that Aung San, the "Chinese puppet" is out of the Western grace.

There are many military coups around the world. There's hardly any news coverage on ones occurring in Africa. Military also ran South Korea

until the 70s which the US didn't give a damn. As to South America... The world is very interested in Myanmar because of its China connection!

Currently I think the West suffers from strategic confusion. They don't exactly know what to do.

If they sanction forcefully the military, Myanmar will become another Iran and embrace China. If they invade Myanmar, it would be another Korean war. If they back Aung San, what can they expect to get out of the stubborn lady who already screwed them once.

So they have pretty much abandoned Myanmar to its own miserable third world fate hoping the country would further degenerate into civil war and chaos, best scenario they can think of. They leave the task in the capable hands of human rights pro-democracy NGOs!!

Written at the invitation of @hakkastan
who loves my posts on Myanmar. And also for:

@goto_matthew
@HarrietNabudere
@OptimalWin
@fchaumac_chau
@MOHSINSYED