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Very excited to announce my paper was published in @nature today! We are likely to cross tipping point thresholds, but disastrous climate tipping points can still be averted if global warming is reversed quickly https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03263-2 @coxypm @Lambda_Joe @UK_CEH @UofE_Research
Once triggered, tipping points may lead to abrupt changes such as Amazon forest dieback and the melting of ice sheets. However, for slow-onset tipping elements, like ice sheets, there is a delay in tipping after the threshold is crossed @coxypm @Lambda_Joe @UK_CEH @UofE_Research
Until now, it has been assumed crossing a threshold commits us to suffering a tipping event. The delay in tipping in slow-onset systems means we can actually briefly overshoot a threshold without causing a permanent change. @coxypm @Lambda_Joe @UK_CEH @UofE_Research
The longer the period that a threshold is exceeded, the less it can be ‘safely’ overshot. For example, exceeding a threshold for 50 yrs rather than 25 yrs requires reducing the maximum overshoot by a factor of 4 @coxypm @Lambda_Joe @UK_CEH @UofE_Research https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2018.0504
Fortunately tipping points believed to have the earliest thresholds are slow-onset. This means safe levels of peak warming are set by fast-onset tipping points, but the safe stabilization warming level is set by slow-onset tipping points @coxypm @Lambda_Joe @UK_CEH @UofE_Research
The research does not imply that we have more time to halt global warming. It is still preferable to prevent crossing thresholds but if we do it’s not game over. We can still avoid tipping so long as we can reverse global warming quickly @coxypm @Lambda_Joe @UK_CEH @UofE_Research
