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‘Sequencing’ and Verifying Sanctions Removal 
Since January 2021 the Iranian narrative insists on a total removal of sanctions & “not just on paper”. This theme was emphasized repeatedly in Khamenei’s speeches, and has become the core Iranian demand in the Vienna process 1/9
Since January 2021 the Iranian narrative insists on a total removal of sanctions & “not just on paper”. This theme was emphasized repeatedly in Khamenei’s speeches, and has become the core Iranian demand in the Vienna process 1/9
What does a “not on paper” sanctions removal mean?
It is not quite clear, yet most Iranian remarks on the subject referenced a few demands: Iran should be able to sell oil, import & export goods, access its frozen assets and interact with the international banking system 2/9 https://twitter.com/carmiomer/status/1349811192190140416
It is not quite clear, yet most Iranian remarks on the subject referenced a few demands: Iran should be able to sell oil, import & export goods, access its frozen assets and interact with the international banking system 2/9 https://twitter.com/carmiomer/status/1349811192190140416
Khamenei seems to have a JCPOA trauma: The 2015 deal may have taught him that sanctions lift is a complex issue, full of different measures & authorities, and made him even more suspicious of the US, since in his view it maintained restrictions after the JCPOA by other means 3/9 https://twitter.com/carmiomer/status/1373634829930135552
Given Khamenei’s JCPOA trauma and his long-standing distrust of the US, he instructed publicly on February that Iran will only return to its JCPOA commitments after it verified that all sanctions were removed.
According to Tasnim, this condition was reiterated last week 4/9 https://twitter.com/carmiomer/status/1381983646106722309
According to Tasnim, this condition was reiterated last week 4/9 https://twitter.com/carmiomer/status/1381983646106722309
Enters the ‘Sequencing’ Idea.
At first, the Iranian press understood the idea as a step-by-step process, which Khamenei and Rouhani’s government rejected repeatedly and stressed that the US must first remove all sanctions before an Iranian step will take place 5/9
At first, the Iranian press understood the idea as a step-by-step process, which Khamenei and Rouhani’s government rejected repeatedly and stressed that the US must first remove all sanctions before an Iranian step will take place 5/9
As the Vienna talks unfolded, it seems that the ‘Sequencing’ idea got a new meaning: A sequence of steps that starts with a TOTAL lift of US sanctions, then a process of verification by Iran, and only then — Iran to return to compliance — in line with Khamenei’s directive 6/9 https://twitter.com/carmiomer/status/1384530101354831872
It seems that the main debate in Tehran has now become the time needed to verify that sanctions have indeed been removed (i.e. step2)
E.g. The reason for the debate between Araghchi and PressTV yesterday prob was their report that the talks focus on 1week verification period 7/9
E.g. The reason for the debate between Araghchi and PressTV yesterday prob was their report that the talks focus on 1week verification period 7/9
And while earlier today Rouhani maintained that the process of verification is not complicated and will mainly involve with 3 Government entities that need to give their OK, the hardliners seem to be more skeptical 8/9 https://twitter.com/fresh_sadegh/status/1384838802221449220
The Majles’ research center estimated that the process would take 3-6 months (h/t @JasonMBrodsky), which was also PressTV’s estimate.
Expect heated public debate around this until the Vienna Monday meeting. Khamenei may have to decide his criteria for a verification process 9/9
Expect heated public debate around this until the Vienna Monday meeting. Khamenei may have to decide his criteria for a verification process 9/9
