Significant increase in positive #Covid19Ireland swabs today, enough to cause some concern. 542 is 120% of last Wednesday & thats increase is more than the modest increase in testing with positivity at 2.8% - possible start of the expected increase in cases from reopening /1

Average of 435 positive swabs over last 3 days is highest in 2+ weeks & 115% last week. Would take us over 1000/day early June so vaccination getting back on track key
501 wk1
578 wk2 - May 5th
666 wk3
768 wk4
886 wk5
1021 wk6 - June 2nd
1177 wk7
1357 wk8
1564 wk9
/2

This was 10% higher than I anticipated from Mondays GP referral data, Tuesdays is now available suggesting about 500 +swabs tomorrow which would see the rate of increase on previous week rise to 118% - this is manageable providing vaccination picks up as promised /3

Right where we would expect to see it as a result of last Mondays opening +swabs are increasing at a rate that so far is manageable. But opening more too soon could easily make this unmanageable with 28 more days to go in the 'vulnerable period ahead' for a bad 4th wave /4

The north is also seeing a similar rate of increase in cases, this despite 16% now fully vaccinated and 46.5% dose 1. Really need 80% fully vaccinated before major relaxation can start https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1384860705820643335?s=20

With every day that a significant number of vaccinations are delivered the rather grim maths in this thread improves but we are still months from many of these bad outcomes fading away completely https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1351866736551874562?s=20