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Sorry all, it's been a while since I've done an update on probables and what our cases/100,000 are. Been kind of a hectic couple weeks for me!
Overall, over the last 9 days since my last update, the number of 'probables' have been quite consistent, mostly between 57 and 59 cases/100,000 - more than enough just on their own to keep us under the mandates.
Confirmed cases per 100,000 have moved from ~139 to ~142, with a sharp drop in confirmed yesterday. What caused this sharp drop yesterday? The loss of April 5th's cases. What is the significance of April 5th?
It was the day after Easter. Oddly enough, April 5th was our highest 'peak' since early February - higher than any other day by ~300.
Easter itself was abnormally low in its case count. What is the significance of that?
Easter itself was abnormally low in its case count. What is the significance of that?
As I pointed out last winter, holiday and weekend drops can be illuminating because illnesses don't care about our holidays. People fall ill when they fall ill.
The low point on Sunday followed by the highpoint on Monday is almost certainly an artifact of asymptomatic testing, either for procedures, or for 'required' testing on college campuses and LTC facilities, NOT because of a spike in illness from one day to the next.
