1/ To understand why lockdowns don't work, you have to first ask, what do they work at? And merely asking that question you will suddenly realize that your idea of "work" is entirely different than the idea held by the Ontario Science Table, or public health officials.
2/ Your idea of "work" is to get through this epidemic with a minimal amount of death and destruction. And to see the virus fade into the background like all the other viruses that humans have dealt with.
3/ But for the health officials, lockdowns work to surpress cases. And even supposing that were true, the only end game is either total suppression (covid zero as they call it) or a robust herd immunity.
4/ Have you read about some species that is thought to be extinct, only years later to hear that it is discovered thriving in some parts, because scientists didn't think to look there? Well that's what zero covid looks like. Ask the Australians and the New Zealanders.
5/ Covid is going to keep popping up sending them into jarring lockdowns as long as they keep up the illusion that the lockdowns have "worked" That's their definition of "working".
6/ The promise held out to us, at least here in Ontario, is that if we locked down for long enough, and socially distanced long enough, and wore masks long enough (usually just another 2 weeks), the cavalry would arrive in the form of vaccines and all would be well.
7/ But as you can see, the vaccines don't solve anything. Suddenly the promise of a return to normal has been taken away, and in fact, the vaccines seem to correlate directly with a rise in the dreaded cases. So if reducing cases to zero is your goal, we are a long way from home.
8/ So the people who said that lockdowns "work" now tell you to lockdown harder. And the reasons they didn't work are because you didn't lockdown the right way. You didn't lockdown hard enough. You didn't lockdown like Australia, or New Zealand.
9/ But there is reason to be highly optimistic. First of all, covid deaths are now at a much less severe level. In fact, seen against the normal deaths that occur, day to day, they are just one part of our life now. As will be, the dreaded "cases".
10/ But you are probably hearing the drum beats of the medical establishment calling for another round of stringent lockdowns. Because.. they work? No. Because modelling numbers (which have been wildly off since the start) demand a covid zero response. It ain't gonna work.
11/ It's time to stop listening to people who's idea of "worked" is not a solution, not even a half solution, not even the start of a solution. There are no easy answers, but lockdowns have likely prolonged the agony with human costs we don't even know about yet.
12/ Hope lies in places like Florida and Texas and Sweden, who endured derision and fierce attacks for their common sense responses. And who now seem rather wise. Feel empowered to ask direct question about how measures will "work". What is the end game? Who benefits?
13/ But beware the answers from millionaire TV doctors, advisors who are in bed with governments, public health officials who previously chased STIs and runny noses, and all consultants and politicians! Believe your eyes. Believe your neighbours. And believe yourself.
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