Thread by @84andUp, As we all know, we're in a market fall. For me, the [...]

As we all know, we're in a market fall. For me, the price falls have not all made a lot of sense, and has been my reason for buying on the way down these last few weeks.

But I want to offer a thread on why I think some things at the very least are actually too undervalued 1/23

At the time of this writing, the low ask market cap is ~860 million. The last we were at this level was on February 18th, the day before the bull run.

But we also have a ton of more moments since then, so I pushed back further. This isn't scientific, but I pushed to when 2/23

the Market Cap was at about 530 million a few days before. This, I think, gives a rough accounting for all the newer moments that have entered the ecosystem since then.

My theory: all the stars (steph, lebron, durant, etc) are undervalued @ the 7500 and 15k levels right now 3/23

Let's look to steph curry who's prices have been going DOWN while he is on a massive tear in the league.

At the 530mill MC, the 15k was at 100$ and the /7500 was at 300. Right now, at the 860mill MC: 67 for the 15k, 199 for the /7500 4/23

Interestingly, this 1/3 difference tracks across almost all of them. Trae Young /7500 was at 75-80 at the February mark, while right now it's at 43$. Durant /7500 was at the 400 mark, right now 275. 800 for Lebron /7500, right now 595. 5/23

These prices, compared to the current market cap, literally make no sense. Even back then S2 accounted for more moments than S1, & while I'm not sure how to judge what the total market cap was back then at the moment, my rough guess seems to show that compared to market cap 6/23

if the rough estimate that today's prices - taking into account all the new moments - is to equate roughly to the 530Mill MC, (and the s2 MC right now is 233Mill so we may have to judge a bit higher even, but let's be conservative), then literally all the stars 7/23

Steph, Lebron, Durant, Doncic, Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, Kawhi, etc: all their 7500 and 15k moments are, in fact, undervalued.

What's fascinating is that the other 15ks - de'aaron fox has been my go to - seem in the realm of ratios to be mostly underpriced even though they're 8/23

outperforming their pre bull run prices. These became the safest buys pre-bull run. If you bought 1000 Foxs pre-bull run, you would be worth 16k from a 2k buy right now. So they have taken some of the cap value. However, compared to their 35ks, if you're looking purely at 9/23

minting, they're underpriced imho.

The Fox 35k is at 7$ while the /15k is at 17. I would argue that the 35K should be about 30% of the value of the 15k. So either the 35k is overpriced - and that's possible - or the 15k is underpriced by about 6$. 10/23

(Full disclosure, I have 50 /15k Foxs, it's why I keep looking to him)

Interestingly, The S1 Moments are virtually identical to their pre-bull run prices. I think this is why a lot of people are buying them now as they go down. Intuitively we see that we probably can't go 11/23

much lower. If you think market conditions are similar to pre-Feb bull run, then you'd be right to think we've hit the bottom. If you think we can compare to earlier, then we will dip more. You can't time the bottom. Personally, I think we're near the end. 12/23

In short, I think the s2 stars are all massive buys right now. Not only are the cheap, they're cheaper than they should be compared to the market cap. The selling at these prices is irrational and will not be this low forever

I recognize the issue is a lot of people 13/23

are just not dapper liquid. It's hard to sell when everything is going down. Part of that comes from the right intuition that the prices don't make sense. Because they don't. They're literally irrational. If you look at it from a cap based on low ask, it becomes clear. 14/23

I was gonna attach charts and stuff but just ran out of time. But I was zooming with a friend who's in this but also just a man who's very smart with money. I asked him after I showed him all the data, what he thought. He said "that's easy: tells me to buy right now". 15/23

This is a bit simpler than I was expecting it to be. But if you do your research, you'll see that prices don't make sense. It's amazing how much the charts for different moments follow such similar paths. But if we felt it was reasonable to buy these moments 2 months ago 16/23

at the prices they were then at a market cap and in a market situation similar to ours, then we ought to see what the prices are right now: buying opportunities. Do your own research and you'll see this to be true instead of giving into the FUD emotions. 17/23

So then why are prices falling on these moments and not on the other 15ks? It's very simple: there's only so far the cheaper moments can go. Because of their 35k counterparts, the Fox, for example, it gets hard for it to go any lower because the price just looks too cheap 18/23

compared to the 35k. Interestingly, people have ignored the Trae Young /7500 even though it's only 15$ more than the 15k. My rule of thumb - it's not perfect - is that the 15k should be roughly worth 1/3 of the 7500 due to more volume. It's not a simple half price. And this 19/23

has always proven a helpful guide to me and has proven largely right. 35ks should be - not always - 1/3 the 15k. This has largely proven true!

This is why I'm buying regardless as to whether or not I time the bottom perfectly. There's some real resistance 20/23

that's starting to show up just based on the other moments by particular players that it makes it hard to fall.

But. The bigger players have been more volatile because of their higher pricing. It's easier for lebron /15k at 500 to fall than for Fox /15k at 17 21/23

The closeness to the floor (and the 35k moment) creates a natural resistance that's hard to stop

Add to this that most new users go for cheap stuff first. Which is great. It's safe. It's easier for them to make the jump from 7-17 rather than from 25-70 in the case of Steph 22/23

So they tend to be more vulnerable in bear conditions to pricing falls because people are less able to make the bigger purchases.

In short, this is my small contribution to say: if you do the research, you can find buying opportunities to shore you up for the future 23/23 END

I was 2 tweets short of giving @mbl267_NFT a run for his money ;)

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