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Congratulations; the EU has a 2030 climate deal!
This night, negotiators from the European Parliament and the EU Council (member states) reached agreement on the -55% target and its interpretation. https://twitter.com/timmermanseu/status/1384707773062123521
This night, negotiators from the European Parliament and the EU Council (member states) reached agreement on the -55% target and its interpretation. https://twitter.com/timmermanseu/status/1384707773062123521
After last night’s negotiations, the EU’s “-55% by 2030” emissions goal now means: emissions -52.8% (up from the current target of -40%), and ‘sinks’ (carbon taken from the atmosphere by forests etc.) to increase. https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-04/eu-staaten-europaparlament-klimaziel-treibhausgase-erderwaermung
How, I understand this: The reference year for EU emission reduction percentages is always 1990. Then we had 4,928 million tCO2eq of greenhouse gas emissions while forests etc. took up 255 million tCO2eq. Net emissions: 4,674 MtCO2eq
The EC proposed to reduce these net emissions by 55%, which is easier then reducing the actual emissions by 55%. Parliament didn’t like this; actually, it had even voted to reduce actual emissions by 60%. It now achieved that the ‘sinks’ can only count for max 225 MtCO2eq.
So now net emissions have to go down to 45% of their 1990 total, that is to max 2,103 Mt. And the sinks can only contribute -225 Mt to that, so the actual emissions can be max 2,328 Mt. Which is 52.8% below their 1990 total of 4,928 Mt.
At the same time, the EU now committed to increase the real uptake of CO2 by forests etc. (those sinks) up to -300 Mt by 2030. Which in turn will mean that the net emissions will go down to 2,028 Mt; a reduction of 56.6%.
So what Parliament achieved here is capping the contribution from the ‘sinks’ (always hard to measure anyway) and solidifying a real emission reduction target. Plus a commitment on increasing those sinks.
Can you imagine these negotiations, with MEPs and governments from 27 countries, all night until 5 o’clock in the morning? Anyway, great that we have an agreement, because we badly need to get going! Even 52.8% requires a massive effort.
EU emissions in 2019 were already 24% lower than in 1990 ( https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/sharpest-decrease-of-the-decade). So, in index terms, the pathway now looks like this:
1990 100
2019 76
2030 47.2 (= 100 - 52.8)
That means 2030 emissions will now have to be reduced by 38% from their 2019 levels.
1990 100
2019 76
2030 47.2 (= 100 - 52.8)
That means 2030 emissions will now have to be reduced by 38% from their 2019 levels.
The EU climate deal, although I would’ve loved to see even higher emission reductions, requires a huge effort.
38% reduction in 11 years = 3.5% per year, in 27 countries, across the economy, not just in the ‘easy’ part (electricity production, thanks to renewables). Go, go, go!
38% reduction in 11 years = 3.5% per year, in 27 countries, across the economy, not just in the ‘easy’ part (electricity production, thanks to renewables). Go, go, go!
Btw, I took the numbers for the emissions math in this thread from the EC’s Impact Assessment document. You can find it here: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:749e04bb-f8c5-11ea-991b-01aa75ed71a1.0001.02/DOC_2&format=PDF
