1/ I don't think crypto is an inherently good or bad asset class.

Its backed by nothing which flies in the face of everything I've learned about how assets derive value.

However, its the best (perhaps only) alternative we have to something we all know isn't going to work (brr).

2/ My friends & family often tell me to sell (some) because they know I've been here for years.

But sell to what?

Real estate? That's a hard asset but it's propped by low interest rates.

People don't look at the purchase price they look at the monthly clip. Many are in ARMs.

3/ I would still say they aren't making more land & even in 2007 real estate didn't drop as much as stocks or crypto do in 60 day clips.

But speaking of stonks?

Don't get me started. Anything negative you think about crypto is happening in stonks with worse fundamentals.

4/ Bonds? Interest rates are going UP. THEY CANNOT GO DOWN INTO NEGATIVES TO JUSTIFY PRICE INCREASES IT DOESNT MAKE SENSE.

Nobody is paying people to borrow money from them without additional equity agreements in place.

This is common sense. Don't buy it. Sorry ECB.

5/ VC? How is this any different than crypto & what industry could you possibly be more bullish on for VC placements on a 10 year outlook? It is very clear blockchain has a future and isn't Google glass at this point.

6/ Gold? Elon is trying to land rovers on a planet next to an asteroid belt in our lives. Mining just ONE of those asteroids crushes the prices of gold.

Its not cross border portable & has little utility.

PS you don't own gold. You own paper saying you own gold. An IOU.

7/ Diamonds?

There are football fields of diamonds to suppress prices. Anyone who understands why BTC and ETH will go up or down understands what happens De Beers falls into financial hardships & unloads their bags.

8/ Cash? Sheesh.

Inflation is already here. I treat cash like the Tether hot potato game & get rid of it as fast as possible. Oddly for the exact same reason... I don't trust the issuer.

Meanwhile I pay that issuer to manage my taxes.

9/ This leads me to my main point that I brought up to @fullyallocated recently.

Seriously what isn't a bubble?

What is "safe?"

Who decides that? Where did they learn about safety? Higher education?

I'll get to that later.

10/ My honest to God opinion is dirt pits, trades, & a subset of a few crypto assets are the "safe" assets.

Laugh but dirt pits actually do perform well in financial downturns and hyperinflation.

But who the hell can buy a dirt pit? Much less operate it? Maybe @NickAwkWard

11/ Anyone can buy ETH or BTC. It is the only reasonable hedge for normies against the EVERYTHING BUBBLE. Because make no mistake... everything IS in a bubble. I just have no idea how any of this ends & neither does anyone else. If they tell you otherwise they're lying to you.

12/ Final piece would be trades. If you can't learn to code.. learn plumbing or be an electrician. Many of us went to college to learn a desk job. Meanwhile plumbers, on average, make more money as plumbers than Harvard grads. In fact, im more bullish on plumbing than higher ed.

13/ There are literally more people in law school than lawyers. That will end as well as money printing.

It is excess debt chasing set demand.

And these are the people telling us how to evaluate risk. These are the people who made up quantitative easing.

14/ So I'm bullish on dirt, trades, & a select few crypto assets. The fact this sounds crazy & contrary may actually be why its right. Nothing is safe if EVERYONE is in the trade.

This is like a packed life boat. It sinks.

15/ Tldr; there's a high probability that your friend who's a plumber/electrician, your friend in crypto, or your friend who understands dirt will do better than your friend who is a lawyer/in law school or is highly educated.

In 2013 this was crazy talk but here we are.