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PREDICTING ROOKIE FANTASY SUCCESSThis is shit you should be paying for, but I’m trying to grow, so enjoy it and thank me when you win your draft
A THREAD — WELL WORTH THE READ
The answer is REGRESSION ANALYSIS. It tells you EXACTLY what college metrics have historically translated to more fantasy points.
So first I built a database encompassing stats and metrics of the top players at QB, WR, TE, and RB within 3-10 years (depending on the position).
So first I built a database encompassing stats and metrics of the top players at QB, WR, TE, and RB within 3-10 years (depending on the position).
This is what the database looks like for the top NFL WRs. Mind you, we are looking at their COLLEGE STATS, to see which stats actually translated to Higher fantasy points.
We use regression analysis (a form of statistical analysis and a function in Excel) to tells us what metrics had real correlation to more points. Meaning—consistently the top players score more points when certain metrics or stats were higher.
We then narrow down the database to ONLY categories that are statistically significant—or correlated to fantasy points.
The regression analysis provides a formula that tells you what your coefficient values should be.
The regression analysis provides a formula that tells you what your coefficient values should be.
Once you have your coefficients for each relevant stat/metric, you multiply it against the incoming rookies. Each coefficient is weighted based on historical data.
This is how I built my WR rankings. I did this for QBs, WRs, RBs, and TEs.
My scores are just a direct computation of historical data.THIS IS SOME INCREDIBLE SHIT
My scores are just a direct computation of historical data.
THIS IS SOME INCREDIBLE SHIT
HISTORICALLY, Dominator Rating, Breakout Age, and Draft Capital had direct correlation to more fantasy points. So that’s 99% of what we care about. That doesnt mean ignore context, Jaylen Waddle is better than Jaelon Darden.
My rankings are on the left, my scores are colored. All the data that mattered is entered here.
I HOPE YOU GUYS ENJOY, I WORKED MY ASS OFF TO BUILD THESE MODELS
I HOPE YOU GUYS ENJOY, I WORKED MY ASS OFF TO BUILD THESE MODELS
Any RTs or likes are GREATLY APPRECIATED!
@CWilliamsNFL @jmthrivept @ekballer @ElvinRyan_FF @SWallace_FF @ScottFish24 @stephiesmallls @DaveKluge_FF @JonHelmkamp @a_johnsonFF @YardsPer @PopesFFH @DP_NFL @DynastyDorks @DynastySFlex @AlfredJF @FF_Astronauts @CarpentierNFL
@CWilliamsNFL @jmthrivept @ekballer @ElvinRyan_FF @SWallace_FF @ScottFish24 @stephiesmallls @DaveKluge_FF @JonHelmkamp @a_johnsonFF @YardsPer @PopesFFH @DP_NFL @DynastyDorks @DynastySFlex @AlfredJF @FF_Astronauts @CarpentierNFL
