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Want to talk about INFLECTION POINT and how it looks like we have reached this in our country with hospitalizations at this vaccination rate & also turning the corner in Michigan. We discussed this first with Israel & I think "inflection point" with both hospitalizations & cases
will be different by country/state/region depending on degree of natural immunity there. This article in Nature from early on in the Israel roll-out: "You need to vaccinate much >1/3 of the population to really see a reduction in transmission", how much https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00316-4
more probably depends on 1) natural immunity (surges before (CA has 38% of its population exposed); 2) degree of lockdown as you are vaccinating (UK more; Israel less; places in US variable); 3) maybe even what vaccine (?India). Paper from Israel (Fig) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00531-0
looks like lockdown restrictions eased 2/7/21. Paper specifically said "In conclusion, patience was needed before the real-life effect of the mass vaccination campaign in Israel became apparent" (I used word "patience" with reporter about US today). Graph
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel
from Israel (Figure above) shows us cases started plummeting about 40% 1st dose vax rate (other inflection point - where hospitalizations started becoming decoupled from cases & those in hospitals were unvaccinated had occurred before). Economy open 3/8/21 https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/07/israel-reopens-economy-after-vaccinating-nearly-40-of-population
In US (source) entire U.S. total (w/o territories) for confirmed COVID hospitalizations over past 7d coming down day-by-day: now at 36.8K confirmed COVID admissions over last 7d: 29K by end next week or lower (Once Israel started descent, went down fast)
https://healthdata.gov/Health/COVID-19-Community-Profile-Report/gqxm-d9w9
https://healthdata.gov/Health/COVID-19-Community-Profile-Report/gqxm-d9w9
If you look at this tweet and world data Israel: https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1382291201655779330 & https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel?country=~ISR
3/8/21: Critically ill hospitalizations were at ~47%, cases were 3,594
3/15/21: ICU ~39%, cases 2,257 or -37% from prior week
3/22/21: ICU ~23%, cases 1,122 or -50% from prior week
3/8/21: Critically ill hospitalizations were at ~47%, cases were 3,594
3/15/21: ICU ~39%, cases 2,257 or -37% from prior week
3/22/21: ICU ~23%, cases 1,122 or -50% from prior week
3/29/21: ICU ~18%, cases were 480 or -57% from prior week
4/5/21: ICU ~10%, cases were 354 or -26% from prior week
4/12/21: ICU ~7%, cases were 222 or -38% from prior week
So, what about Michigan? See current data here - hook at end look like turning corner & admissions peaked
4/5/21: ICU ~10%, cases were 354 or -26% from prior week
4/12/21: ICU ~7%, cases were 222 or -38% from prior week
So, what about Michigan? See current data here - hook at end look like turning corner & admissions peaked
Michigan is at 45.6% 1st dose (below source), lower than average of US which is at 51.1% 1st dose today ( https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). So, go faster, looks like inflection point being reached
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98178_103214-547150--,00.html
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98178_103214-547150--,00.html
Think we are getting closer and closer to that inflection point when things turn around in these regions of the US. So, this is important- we are not in a 4th surge overall. 5 states in our country are reporting 75% of our new cases https://www.salon.com/2021/04/21/a-quarter-of-the-us-population-is-vaccinated-so-why-are-covid-19-cases-still-rising/
Those states are Michigan, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey. We compared ER visits against hospital admissions now vs. peak of pandemic, to see if ratio declined and it has - 22% ER to admission Jan 5, 2021; 11% ER to admission now https://www.wsj.com/articles/old-u-s-covid-19-hot-spots-are-the-new-hot-spots-11618937100?mod=searchresults_pos4&page=1
Past 2 days on cases took steep decline per CDC site; NYT website has 7 day average on cases of 64.5K so down -5% day over day (67.2k cases) vs. a week ago -9% (71.1k cases). My data analyst therefore makes following projections based on inflection points: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
1,200 Total U.S. Hospitalizations for COVID inpatient, & 300 for COVID ICU by 6/5/21 (total 1,500 U.S. Hospitalizations for COVID by 6/5/21) and that we will reach what Dr. Fauci messaged as 10K a day by 5/29/21. Helpful to have publicly available data, watch UK (senior) &
UK (junior) while we are sophomores in high school fast catching up vaccinations with one part of our student body (the 5 states) above with 75% of new cases. Let's all watch carefully, get vaccine out as fast as possible in these regions, & see if these projections come true.
We certainly seemed to have reached inflection point in US with ~32,000 cases today (lowest since June); see inflection on CDC graph. This is at 42.2% 1st dose as of today. My data analyst had predicted this by end week so seems (like Israel), once it starts, cases go down fast
