Not all of the Atlanta suburbs have flipped to Democrats. Georgia’s 11th district was drawn to include the most Republican of the region’s suburbs. It still holds them, but if Republicans aren’t careful in redistricting, it could backfire. This #DistrictOfTheDay is hurtling left.
The new version of this seat was created after the 2000 Census as Georgia’s population began to explode. The first winner in 2002 was Phil Gingrey, a Republican who didn’t shy away from controversial opinions, including a defense of Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” comments.
He also claimed that illegal immigrants were bringing Ebola to the U.S. in large numbers. Perhaps he hoped that those statements would be appealing in a statewide GOP primary. They weren’t. In 2014, Gingrey ran for Senate but came in fourth with barely 10% of the vote.
His successor is Barry Loudermilk (R–Cassville). Loudermilk isn’t much of a moderate either. He’s fully on board with MAGA and continues to express anti-LGBT views. For now that remains in line with his district, but things are changing very fast in the Atlanta area.
This seat includes parts of four counties. The biggest piece is suburban Cobb County, which voted against Loudermilk in 2020 for the second cycle in a row. Cobb’s political transformation has been incredible, from voting for Bush in 2004 by 25% to Biden by 14% in 2020.
The rapid shift left in Atlanta’s suburbs is driven by two principal factors. The first is diversification: from 2000 to 2019, Cobb County went from 19 to 28 percent Black. Atlanta’s heavily nonwhite in-migrants aren’t just settling in the city itself, but all around it.
The second factor is the swinging of college-educated whites toward Democrats. Especially in Georgia, these voters had a long way to fall, remaining more conservative than other college whites elsewhere outside the South. 80% white Cherokee County shows how they can swing.
Cherokee County, a conservative exurb of Atlanta, went from being Romney+57.5 in 2012 to Trump+39.3 last year. It's no wonder Dems remain so optimistic in the state. Cherokee was still the GOP's biggest source of votes in 2020, but those net margins are getting much smaller.
GA-11 also takes in the last remaining Republican parts of Fulton County, home to some uber-wealthy folks. It used to be staunchly GOP, but Loudermilk’s winning margin there in 2020 was down to just single digits. It’s truly been a perfect storm for Republicans in Georgia.
Republicans will do everything in their power to gerrymander the state as they cling to power heading into 2020. But in many cases the writing is on the wall. Lots of these suburban trends predated Trump, and they will outlast him too. Flipping this area is a question of when.
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