Read on Twitter
Time for a Swedish update/recap with respect to #COVIDー19 shortly after the release of this correspondence in @TheLancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00885-0/fulltext
A thread
The authors already wrote a correspondence in @TheLancet last year in December in the hope to make FHM (the Swedish national health agency) and the Swedish government adapt their response to follow scientific evidence. https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)32750-1/fulltext
In their first article they reminded everyone how during the first wave the Swedish response was absolutely inadequate. I have talked about this a lot and many press article have covered the failure of Sweden during the first wave.
The Swedish government and FHM went for the natural herd immunity strategy. They are now denying it, but unfortunately for them, the emails from Anders Tegnell (leader of the #COVIDー19 response at FHM) don't lie. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails
With that failure in mind and the piling up number of scientists stating that not acting and going for natural herd immunity was a mistake (see this article for instance) everyone thought that Sweden would adapt its response. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext
But it didn't and FHM and the government decided to stick to their strategy which failed during the first wave and during the second.
With the third wave in sight, still nothing has changed. FHM sticks to their non-evidence based ideas and still in January/February 2021 was not recommending to wear a mask in crowded place.
You read that well: a year in the pandemic and the official stand from FHM is that wearing a mask could make things worse. @Paul_M_OShea summed up the situation on masks in Sweden very well here. https://theconversation.com/covid-why-are-swedish-towns-banning-masks-153681
In Stockholm on the 11th of March 2021 (!!), a kid was even sent home for wearing a mask in school. https://www.thelocal.se/20210311/stockholm-school-sends-pupil-home-for-wearing-face-mask/
Inevitably the third wave started to hit Sweden in March 2021. A little bit less than a month ago one hospital in Stockholm stated that they couldn't take any COVID cases anymore. Any reasonable person would consider this a warning sign. https://twitter.com/Expressen/status/1375870303985750020
But FHM and the Swedish government did not. Fast forward a couple of days ago and now hospitals have to cancel planned surgery and health staff is being forced into working longer shifts and managing the crisis that the government has failed to handle https://www.thelocal.se/20210416/close-to-catastrophe-how-covid-19-is-affecting-other-healthcare-in-sweden/
Similarly, in light of the lack of governmental or FHM-based response, some regions go ahead and try their best to contain the spread. Uppsala (just north of Stockholm) has urged all its resident to stay at home. https://www.thelocal.se/20210413/how-is-uppsalas-personal-lockdown-different-from-the-rest-of-sweden/
The government and FHM liability in this is clearly explained in the above article.
Now let's look quickly at numbers. I'll only show neighbouring countries on the following graphs since they are quite comparable (compared to other European countries much more different from Sweden).
Cases are on the rise: 2 times more cases/M than in the 3 neighbours combined
Cases are on the rise: 2 times more cases/M than in the 3 neighbours combined
And if you think that's because Sweden is testing more. Think again and look at the two figures below. The test-positivity rate is much much higher in Sweden than in the 3 neighbours.
What have the neighbours done differently? They followed science! Closed schools when need be, recommend (although rather late for some) wearing masks, short/local lockdowns...
Deaths/M are not looking so bad (although still much higher than neighbours) for 3 possible reasons. 1. The vaccination of people in risk-groups, 2. the delay between increase in cases and increase in deaths (visible everywhere)
and 3. the now very famous Swedish lag in reporting deaths through a very specific reporting behaviour (see more on this here https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sweden-death-reporting
It remains still that the cumulated deaths/M paints a horrific picture with Sweden doing at least 2 times worse than the three neighbours combined!
And with the current rise in ICU admissions above, the deaths are also likely to increase soon.
Beyond the deaths of course, one has to consider the many people that are still suffering from long COVID which is now reported on more and more.
Overall, the initial correspondence in @TheLancet sums it up well. Things are getting worse everywhere, everyone considers a firm response while Sweden is opening up more and more...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00885-0/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00885-0/fulltext
The irresponsible actions of FHM cost and will cost lives and counting only on people to restrict themselves has proven not to work in Sweden in the past. I personally worry and wonder how can FHM still get to decide on a response for COVID when
even the Swedish corona commission has admitted that the Swedish strategy was a complete failure. https://www.thelocal.se/20201215/what-does-the-first-report-from-swedens-coronavirus-commission-tell-us/
Concluding words: We're not done yet with this pandemic. Anyone can help the research effort to make things better through @foldingathome or @BOINCprojects
More on this here.
Take care and stay safe people. And get vaccinated!! https://twitter.com/lonnibesancon/status/1379651407763103744
Take care and stay safe people. And get vaccinated!! https://twitter.com/lonnibesancon/status/1379651407763103744
