Since 2000, the Republican Presidential nominee has won the Presidential Election three times.

In 2020, the Republican Presidential nominee, former President Trump, lost but said that he won. And somehow convinced a third of the country that he did.

Let's deal with the lie.
Let's compare these four elections - 2000, 2004, 2016 and 2020. It allows us to do a little comparison and contrasting.
We know what it looks like when a Republican wins the Electoral Vote but loses the Popular Vote (2000 and 2016).

We know what it looks like when a Republican wins both (2004).

Do either of these look like 2020?
If you look at all of the Presidential Elections since 2000, only 9 of our 50 states voted differently at any point during this time span.

Only 6 states voted differently in 2020 than they did the last time a Republican won both the Electoral and Popular votes, in 2004.
And for you kids old enough to remember 2004 election, President Bush won that election but it was a very close win. It came down to the state of Ohio.

But since 2004, there have been a bunch of once reliably-red states that, from the GOP's perspective, have gone bye bye.
So here are the states that have changed hands between the parties at some point between the 2000 Presidential Election and the 2020 Presidential Election.

Here's Arizona. Which, from the GOP perspective, started nosediving after 2012. It eventually flipped blue in 2020.
Colorado slipped away from the GOP starting in the 2008 election and has stayed blue ever since. Bush would not have won the 2000 election without Colorado. But ever since 2008, every Republican has had to try to win without it.
Georgia has been slipping away from the Republicans starting after the 2012 election.

If the election was "rigged" in 2020, was it "rigged" in 2016 also?
Trump won Michigan in 2016. But it was the only time Michigan went blue since 1988.

The anomaly wasn't that Trump lost Michigan in 2020. It was unusual that he won it (very barely) in 2016.
Which election was more unusual with regards to history? The 2016 election which Trump won? Or the 2020 election which he lost?

2016 was the anomaly, not 2020. For example:

The 2016 Election was only the fifth in US history in which the winner did not get the most votes.
The 2016 election was our 58th Presidential Election. And the number of votes by which Trump lost the popular vote was three times the vote margin in the other four such elections in which the winner lost the popular vote combined.
The 2016 Election was the first ti a Republican won a US Presidential Election without winning the state of Colorado since 1908.

Trump’s 2016 win marked the first time a Republican won the Presidency without winning the state of Nevada since 1908 as well.
Trump’s win in 2016 was also the first time a Republican managed to win a Presidential election without winning Virginia since 1924.

On the other hand, 2016 was the only time the GOP won either Michigan or Pennsylvania since 1988. And its only win in Wisconsin since 1984.
And if you look, the only states that voted differently in 2020 than they did in 2004 are:

(Slid toward Dems after 2012, flipped 2020)

(Flipped 2008; blue in last 4 elections)

(Slid toward Dems after 2012, flipped 2020)
(Flipped in 2008; blue in last 4 elections)

New Mexico
(Flipped in 2008, blue in last 4 elections)

(Flipped in 2008, blue in last 4 elections)
Would Bush have won in 2004 had he lost Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia? No.

Since the days of Bush’s dad, have Republican Presidential candidates generally won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the states Trump eked out in 2016? Also no.
Trump and those who lie on his behalf challenged the election results in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. An embarrassing percentage of the American public believed/believes this lie, which is why I post the data.

So, let’s examine these states.
So, after a little break, Arizona. Here's what happened in other contests in the state as you see the line for Presidential margins do a nosedive into blue territory.

1 GOP-held US Senate seat lost in 2018
1 GOP-held US House seat lost in 2018
4 GOP State House seats lost in 2018
1 GOP State Senate seat lost in 2020

By 2018, comparing with 2016, Georgia Republicans had lost:

- 3 State Senate seats
- 13 State House seats.

In 2018, Kemp won Governorship but only by 1.4 points.
Georgia Republicans lost 1 US House seat in both 2018 and 2020. And then lost both US Senate seats in 2021.

Republicans in Georgia have been trending down for a while. Not just in 2020. Not because anything was "rigged."

Comparing 2018 against 2016, Republicans had lost:

- 2 US House seats
- The Governorship
- 5 State Senate seats
- 5 State House seats

- Lost the Governorship in 2018.

- Lost a US Senate seat in 2018.

- Lost 2 State Senate seats in 2018. Gained back 1 in 2020.

- Lost 1 State House seats in 2018. Gained back 2 in 2020.

Between 2016 and 2018, Republicans lost:
- 5 State Senate seats
- 11 State House seats

Between 2018 and 2020:
- Lost another State Senate seat
- Gained back 3 State House seats

- GOP lost Governorship in 2018
- Lost a State Senate seat in 2018, gained back 2 in 2020.
- Lost a State House seat in 2018, lost 2 more in 2020.
If someone is going to believe Trump's lie that he somehow didn't lose the 2020 election, what about all these other elections, all over the country, where Republicans did badly in the states that he claims were "rigged?"

Were all those elections somehow "stolen?"
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