Exciting round 8 games in the #FIDECandidates - here's my latest predictions, unsurprisingly Caruana's chances have jumped!

Predictions after round 9 - Caruana and Nepo roughly neck-and-neck, Giri's chances have increased to 5%. #FIDECandidates

Predictions after round 10 - Nepo a very clear favourite after today's win, but still some chances for others to catch him. #FIDECandidates

Predictions after round 11 - Nepo's winning chances increase still further, while Caruana's decrease. Giri reaches 10% as MVL falls to 3%. #FIDECandidates

Predictions after round 12 - Giri and MVL still have some chances of winning, but it's looking more and more likely that Nepo will take it. #FIDECandidates

As there are only 5 key games left, it's possible to do this deterministically now, which makes it much easier to flex the assumptions. Let me know if there are any scenarios you're interested in.