This is a very interesting example of Fauci actually directly addressing evidence that no-lockdown states are better off than lockdown states. He was correct, from a rational maximizer’s point of view, not to attempt such before because he’s awful at it. https://twitter.com/aginnt/status/1383553315980464133

I have some drafted tweets about this that I didn’t publish because I thought their point was too obvious and already implicit in my thread on mobility data. Namely: you’d have to be an easy mark to believe that “voluntary lockdown” explains this precisely because what person...

...even loosely familiar with American culture could believe that Californians under lockdown are more mobile than Texans with no lockdown? I didn’t think anyone would be bold enough to advance such a miserable explanation.

But let's not rely on regional stereotypes. Here we have the Apple map directions requests data. I don't see a voluntary lockdown in Texas or a hard-partyin' California skirting lockdown rules.

The methodology for this dataset is explained in this master thread https://twitter.com/theoryofcovid/status/1380912088130977796

How exactly these work as proxies for physically-proximate gathering is debatable. Maybe the driving/walking resurgence is linked to such events. But then why isn't transit back? Unclear. It's easier to draw a comparative conclusion: CA is clearly not mixing socially more than TX

I keep seeing people who are kind of finally coming around still promote the claim that "the UK and the US half-assed it and that's why they have excess death. Yes, our actually-existing lockdowns were bad, but if only..."

I will admit that I'm wrong the moment that anyone...

...can show me better data than what I've shown in this thread. Are there sources I'm not considering? Kind of hard to find data on this and I have four sources above in thread that all agree with me, but I will look at any genuine empirical study you provide.

Let's look at the case of Japan, which has had virtually no excess mortality in 2020 or 2021 (image 1). What does a qualitative study of its stringency say (image 2)? Far below US, UK. What about its Apple mobility data vs. that of NY and CA say? Mobility way higher than US.

(I used NY and CA because people will complain that there are regional variations in the US. According to distancing "theory", if physical contact is banned in a particular locale, like it was in NY + CA, then whatever is happening elsewhere in the country is largely irrelevant).