So, in anticipation of the 2021 Welsh Senedd elections this year, here is my thread on marginal Plaid targets for 2021.

For those intending to vote for Plaid Cymru, here are the seats they are most likely to gain in 2021 based on the results of the 2016 Senedd elections..

Llanelli - 382 votes to win. Plaid Cymru candidate is Helen Mary Jones.

While both Waters and Jones have previously been embroiled in controversy, Jones has an otherwise distinguished political career stretching back to 1992.

Jones has been Senior Development Manager with the Equal Opportunities Commission in Wales, and in 1999, she was the first Assembly Member to represent Llanelli in the Senedd, losing re-election in 2003 by just 21 votes.

Blaenau Gwent - 650 votes to win. Plaid Cymru candidate is Peredur Owen-Griffiths.

Plaid Cymru increased their vote share here from 5.4% to 36.6% in 2016.

Aberconwy - 754 votes to win. Plaid Cymru candidate is Aaron Wynne.

Janet Finch-Saunders has held the seat for the Conservatives for ten years, however she has been beset by second home controversy, and has a dubious reputation for being the most “expensive” MS in the Senedd.

Cardiff West - 1176 votes to win. Plaid Cymru candidate is Rhys ab Owen.

Despite being relatively popular with the Welsh public for his handling of the pandemic, dissatisfaction remains with 22 years of Welsh Labour Government.

Caerphilly - 1575 votes to win. Plaid Cymru candidate is Delyth Jewell.

Jewell succeeded Steffan Lewis as MS for the South Wales East region in 2019, and has since built a reputation as a hardworking and dedicated MS.

In 2019, the Labour incumbent, Hefin David, was embroiled in controversy due to insulting language used towards a Twitter user over an argument about Welsh independence.

Neath - 2923 votes to win. The Plaid Cymru candidate is Sioned Ann Williams.

Plaid need circa 3,000 votes to win here, but could a surge in support for Welsh independence, the pandemic and dissatisfaction with Welsh Labour get Plaid over the line here in 2021?

Clwyd West - 5063 votes to win. The Plaid Cymru candidate is Elin Walker-Jones.

Not by definition, a “marginal” seat, however in 2016, Plaid were second behind the Conservatives here.

A “Leave” voting constituency, deprivation is very high in Clwyd West, so it remains to be seen whether the Conservatives manage to retain their popularity in the aftermath of Brexit.

Pontypridd - 5327 votes to win. Plaid candidate is Heledd Fychan.

Again, not a “marginal” seat by definition however, Plaid Cymru were second here in 2016.

Heledd Fychan is a popular local candidate who was elected for Pontypridd Town Ward on Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council and Pontypridd Town Council in 2017. In an unusual election year, could Plaid feasibly get over the line here in 2021?

Other seats to watch:

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire – This is not a Plaid “marginal” seat (they came third in 2016), however the seat does have an unusual history of being almost evenly split in some previous elections amongst the three main parties of...

Labour, Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.

Llyr Huws-Griffith of Plaid Cymru came within 400 votes of taking the seat from Labour’s Christine Gwyther in 2003.

The Conservatives currently retain a majority here of 3,373 over Labour, and 4,896 over Plaid Cymru, however the incumbent, Angela Burns, will not be defending the seat for the Conservatives this year.

Second home ownership remains a “hot topic” issue here, and it remains to be seen what impact that, as well as the Pandemic, might have on the outcome of the 2021 Senedd elections.
The Plaid Cymru candidate for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire this year is Cefin Campbell

Current Plaid Cymru constituency seats:

•Ynys Mon – Rhun ap Iorwerth currently holds a healthy majority of 9,510
•Carmarthen East and Dinefwr – Adam Price holds another healthy majority of 8,700

Current Plaid Cymru constituency seats:

•Arfon – Sian Gwenllian holds this seat for Plaid Cymru with a majority of 4,162 over Labour
•Rhondda – Leanne Wood won the seat from Labour in 2016 with a majority of 3,459, increasing Plaid’s vote share by over 21%

Current Plaid Cymru constituency seats:

•Ceredigion – Elin Jones holds a majority here of 2,408 over the Liberal Democrats

Current Plaid Cymru electoral regional seats:

•North Wales – Llyr Huws Griffith, who will also be running as Plaid candidate for the constituency seat of Clwyd South this year, where he hopes to overturn Labour’s majority of 4,001 over Plaid.

•Mid and West Wales – Helen Mary Jones, who is this year’s challenger for the constituency of Llanelli;

•South Wales East – Delyth Jewell, who will be challenging the constituency seat of Caerphilly this year;

•South Wales West – Bethan Sayed, and Dai Lloyd.

So, there you have it, my summary of the top Plaid target constituency seats for this year and list of current seats.

If anyone has any information on tactical voting and regional list voting, please feel free to add :)

I will also be adding this info in a document format :)

Oh, I forgot to add, Please RT!