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1/ For about 20 countries with the highest vaccination rates I plotted the daily new vaccinations against the daily new Covid deaths:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CoVfnoDqz6sFcYL8tw27hYIJmki16Uq86gEsJ67KkQg/edit?usp=sharing
(don't mind the sudden drops in the red lines on the right, i should have just removed the latest 2 days)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CoVfnoDqz6sFcYL8tw27hYIJmki16Uq86gEsJ67KkQg/edit?usp=sharing
(don't mind the sudden drops in the red lines on the right, i should have just removed the latest 2 days)
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6/ Daily Data =
- rolling 7 day averages
- per million
Sources:
vaccination data https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
deaths:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
https://covid19.who.int/info/
Tiny countries without recent deaths in the past 4 months were excluded.
- rolling 7 day averages
- per million
Sources:
vaccination data https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
deaths:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
https://covid19.who.int/info/
Tiny countries without recent deaths in the past 4 months were excluded.
7/ I've added a sheet with the data
8/ In most of these countries mass vax took place in what's normally flu season, so in that sense it's not a surprise per se that a lot of Covid deaths would occur.
But I'd love to see more detailed data on Covid & all-cause deaths within 2 weeks of first vax shot.
But I'd love to see more detailed data on Covid & all-cause deaths within 2 weeks of first vax shot.
9/ Much of Canada is in crisis mode as a result of the increases in cases.
The thinking is: We need to keep everybody locked down until enough people can be vaccinated.
Now look at this chart.
(correlation is not causation etc)
The thinking is: We need to keep everybody locked down until enough people can be vaccinated.
Now look at this chart.
(correlation is not causation etc)
10/ @danjgregory has an interesting podcast episode today with similar charts with more coincidences
11/ What's very interesting about @danjgregory's episode is the distinction he makes between the different vaccines. The Chinese and Russian vaccines are not much correlated with immediate spikes in daily deaths while the AZ and mRNA vaccines are.
12/ India
13/ Netherlands
14/ Possible explanations fo initial, temporary spokes in cases and/or deaths we see in many places where mass vax begins:
- vaccinated people unwisely engage in riskier behavior too soon
- infection occurs at/to/from vax site
- vaccine temporarily suppresses immune response
- vaccinated people unwisely engage in riskier behavior too soon
- infection occurs at/to/from vax site
- vaccine temporarily suppresses immune response
- correlation does not indicate causal relation: there may be a common cause
- correlation disappears when considering more examples
- adverse events of vaccine cause fatalities in some (especially vulnerable) people recently or currently infected who test positive on PCR test
- correlation disappears when considering more examples
- adverse events of vaccine cause fatalities in some (especially vulnerable) people recently or currently infected who test positive on PCR test
5/ Plotting daily Covid deaths against daily Covid vaccinations for US states
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z9KXs6Ssj_pKEj25cw7tGPIWE6FoqH5U3yW-M2h6vvA/edit?usp=sharing
Note:
10 Days between vaccination and protection against virus/disease
+
20 days between infection and death
=
30 days before vaccines can decrease deaths
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z9KXs6Ssj_pKEj25cw7tGPIWE6FoqH5U3yW-M2h6vvA/edit?usp=sharing
Note:
10 Days between vaccination and protection against virus/disease
+
20 days between infection and death
=
30 days before vaccines can decrease deaths
16/
Note: In all these charts assume a 30 day lag betw date of vaccination & date said vaccination can start reducing deaths:
-10 days for vaccine to kick in
-20 days betw infection & death
So eg any deaths reduction after Jan 31 cannot be attributed to vax earlier than Jan 1.
Note: In all these charts assume a 30 day lag betw date of vaccination & date said vaccination can start reducing deaths:
-10 days for vaccine to kick in
-20 days betw infection & death
So eg any deaths reduction after Jan 31 cannot be attributed to vax earlier than Jan 1.
17/ Cambodia, Thailand and Laos https://twitter.com/RealJoelSmalley/status/1386073183598649358?s=20
