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1/ The most important tweet for everyone in Belgium - or interested in Covid @alexanderdecroo @PedroFacon @FatEmperor @NickHudsonCT @torfsrik @LievenAnnemans
WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING?
These are hard facts to consider before you even dare to talk about our situation.
WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING?
These are hard facts to consider before you even dare to talk about our situation.
2/ We have proven in the past that Covid problems are seasonal, though Belgian media and "experts" have been embarrassingly slow to this discovery (initially they had no clue, now they know but cannot say it coz they claim "our behaviour influences the curve" etc).
3/ Below graph clearly shows that temperature and humidity are the main influence on the curve. This holds true in all countries except those with heavy air conditioning use.
4/ It is not clear why the seasonality works, whether the virus itself disappears or if it simply doesn't trigger the same immune reactions, with the immune system much stronger in summer months ("safe spread" would have been an idea but we settled on useless masks etc,…
5/ …vitamin D is likely to play a role in activating T-cell receptors).
But what I want to do is look at the development of the epidemic in the two seasons (we are at the start of season 2).
But what I want to do is look at the development of the epidemic in the two seasons (we are at the start of season 2).
6/ First, we see the big impact "wave" (100%) which gets interrupted not by lockdowns etc but by seasonality kicking in. Unfinished work. Community immunity clearly not reached (too early), the virus (or its effect) disappears completely in summer.
7/ It returns with the arrival of the autumn season, with many susceptible people still around (arguably more than there needed to be if we hadn't weakened our immune systems all through summer with constant fear mongering and restrictive measures).
8/ A second peak is reached quickly (72% of the first peak) and then drops down quite dramatically and quickly (note that at this stage, only symptomatic people were tested...).
9/ The decline is markedly more dragged out than after peak 1 though, which points to some community immunity and some seasonality (virus seems to peak in spring and autumn, though isn't quite defeated during winter).
10/ Note that all through the December to March period, restrictions remain almost completely unchanged, and obviously people adhere to them less and less, though the curve continues to go down (media and "experts" should have mentioned "numbers keep decreasing Despite loss of…
