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I& #39;m seeing some wild over-reactions to this. What he& #39;s saying is demonstrably true. 1/ thread. https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1381919420101066752">https://twitter.com/BBCPoliti...
The UK entered lockdown a few days after Ireland. Portugal followed a week or so later. The trajectories of cases and deaths were very similar in all three countries despite the UK vaccinating 50% of its population and the others only vaccinating 15%. 2/
In the UK, 80% of the decline in cases had occurred by mid-February when the vaccines could have had only a marginal effect. Case numbers fell sharply among the under-60s who had barely been vaccinated at all. 3/
This doesn& #39;t mean the vaccines don& #39;t work and Johnson was not implying that. It just means that the lockdown was sufficient. It was indeed responsible for the bulk of the work. We& #39;ll never know what effect vaccines alone would have had. 4/
In Israel, most lockdown restrictions ended early in March and cases have continued to fall. In a country that had four waves in succession, this strongly suggests that the vaccine is behind the recent decline. 5/
Whether we& #39;ll have another wave in the next few months remains to be seen. There are certainly enough unvaccinated people to create one, but Johnson has said that won& #39;t be enough to change the roadmap because the vaccines will greatly reduce the impact. 6/ https://www.itv.com/news/2021-04-13/covid-deaths-will-rise-as-pubs-hairdressers-and-shops-reopen-boris-johnson-warns">https://www.itv.com/news/2021...
7/ end. https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1381927295879888901?s=20">https://twitter.com/s8mb/stat...
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