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I have some thoughts on this if you& #39;ll forgive a quick thread! (1/) https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1381962879612555269">https://twitter.com/Democracy...
These are great pollsters, and I appreciate the spirit of honesty and cooperation that they& #39;re bringing to this process. They& #39;re competitors, and this is hard, and it& #39;s huge that they& #39;re working together. (2/)
The thing that& #39;s missing in this quick write-up, though, is the thing that worries me most about polling. This is focused on the accuracy of the horse race numbers - who& #39;s winning and who isn& #39;t. Understandable, because that& #39;s easy to measure against.
But knowing if you& #39;re winning is not why campaigns poll. We poll in order to know what to do about it - what messages and tactics work. And that& #39;s where I think the crisis in polling is much more profound.
You can make tweaks to weighting and turnout screens and get something right-ish on the topline, but the challenges of non-response and low social trust are magnified with message testing and persuasion targets. The old ways just aren& #39;t working.
I loved working in analytics, but one of the main reasons I decided to pull up stakes and go back on the campaign trail is because we need to figure out a different way of running smart campaigns. Our tools aren& #39;t working, and I need to be on the front lines to find new ones.
We& #39;ve seen campaigns completely upend our sense of what& #39;s possible in turnout recently. Now we need campaigns to completely upend our sense of what& #39;s possible in persuasion. The only other option is giving up.
(end of thread)
